Hot Labor Day; Storms Mid-Week

Before I get going - Tiger Fans, I apologize for that poor forecast, but something tells me you didn’t mind getting drenched.

Very few showers were around today as the upper levels were just too warm and surface winds were out of the west. But, things will change drastically by early Wednesday. This ECMWF forecast shows a break in the upper level heat (lighter shade of red) and a surface trough in the Gulf (dashed blue line), north of which storms will form. At this point, I can’t pinpoint a time when the deluge will arrive from the east and think it could be a gradual increase in shower coverage beginning late tomorrow, peaking on Wednesday and Thursday, then decreasing.

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When the rain chances are low and mainly in the afternoon, plus the winds are out of the west — it gets hot here. That will be the case on Monday. When winds shift to the east, storm chances increase on Tuesday before peaking on Wednesday and Thursday. Highs should be held down in the mid 80s with extensive cloud cover during those days. Then, showers chances are lower on Friday and then really go down starting on Sunday. Though highs will increase, I’m thinking closer to 90 than mid-90s.

Next week will feature considerably less rainfall than this week, where we could easily pick up another inch or two. Rainfall amounts this week should be higher near and south of I-10/I-12 with maybe half as much 30 miles to the north. This could be our last chance to pick up some significant rainfall before the fall dry season which starts in mid-September.

The ECMWF and its considerably different AI model are both forecasting a huge upper air trough in the East towards the end of next week along with a strong Canadian High at the surface near the Great Lakes. This should push a cold front in our direction about Thursday Sept. 18, which historically is the average date of first cold frontal passage. This graphic shows the ECMWF forecast for the morning of the 18th with the blue line showing the cold frontal position (the cooler air is north of this line).

If this forecast is perfect, I expect a few days of highs in the mid 80s with lows in the 60s - just like a beautiful summer day in New York. However, but if it comes in weaker, it might just mean that the humidity and night time lows would drop. Even still, this is an encouraging sign of a change in the season.

In the tropics….nothing is brewing in the Atlantic nor will it in the next week. Do you know we still haven’t seen a hurricane this year and we're nearing halftime (Sept. 11)? We won’t go the whole season without one. Next development possibility could be in the far Eastern Atlantic off Africa in about 10 days, but even still I doubt anything that forms there will make it intact to the Caribbean. Not that I’m rooting for it, but….If that front makes it to the Gulf on the 18th, we could see something try to form four or five days later in the Gulf.

Foreca graphic for Pensacola Beach shows a hot one on Labor Day with a low shower threat then an uptick in thunderstorms by midweek — similar to our area. Shower chances go down for next weekend.