Hottest of Year for the Fourth

Our rather pleasant, but showery weather will last for two more days before transitioning to a sunny, hot, and humid spell for Thursday. The sunny, hot weather with an almost complete lack of showers should endure through next weekend but reach its peak on the Fourth.

Yes, you’ve seen HOT Fourths, and upper 90s is nothing unusual — but it will slap you in the face based on the downright reasonable June we’ve had. At least Slidell had it’s fireworks celebration last night so you if you attended, you won’t have to endure the evening outside.

In the tropics, there’s finally something for us to watch - or at least watch starting this Saturday. See “Long Range Ramblings” for more information.

And, oh, there’s surprise Tropical Storm Barry with its satellite photo below. The surprise may be that they even named it. In the satellite image, the storm is located at the X, but who would have seen that? Evidently, the Hurricane Hunters on their very last observation found one flight level wind that barely qualified as tropical storm strength when mathematically taken down to the surface. For most of us classically trained meteorologists, this is a textbook easterly wave not a tropical storm. Regardless, it will be coming ashore in Mexico by the time you read this.

The Foreca graphic looks good, but under-estimates the temperatures and there are some inland vs. coastal differences on the Northshore.

Monday and Tuesday will feature more of the same — AM showers and storms in the Madisonvillle-Slidell-Biloxi corridor, but they will move north at a slower pace. This will allow inland areas to heat up 4-5 degrees warmer than those of us who live within 5-10 miles of the coast. That’s the difference between a 93 and an 88. By mid afternoon, more of the showers should be in Northern St. Tammany, Washington, and Pearl River Parishes/Counties.

Wednesday is a transition day where shower and storm chances will drop to a more typical 30-40%. By Thursday, the heat is on.

First a possible tropical concern…

An upper level trough will be pushing storms and a dying front from the NW into the Eastern Gulf, Florida, and the Coastal Carolinas by this Friday, the 5th. Historically, this is one of the ways tropical development can happen, but its usually at crock pot speed. A few of the models are indicating that a depression will form, but locations vary widely from just west of Florida, to something off the Carolinas. So, there’s a small chance that a depression could from in the Gulf say just off the coast of Tampa, Sarasota, or Ft. Myers next weekend. Worth watching, but don’t do something stupid like canceling your beach vacation based on a “Would a, could a, should a”.

Otherwise, our heat should end sometime between Monday July7 and Wednesday July 9 with more showers and storms, but a lot depends on the tropics as Bob Breck used to say. In fact, the long-range is one big fat “Question Mark” with models in unusual disagreement beyond 8 days. It’s not just a possible tropical development, the entire pattern further north over the U.S. is an uncertain mess. Why? I have some hunches, but it’s beyond my pay grade, especially for a Summer Sunday.

Foreca graphic for Pensacola Beach shows the same story with even more of a contrast. A wet next three days gives way to sun and heat. But 92 degrees with low 80s water temperatures and a breeze is not bad. If I didn’t have plans already, I’d be calling my friend in Destin with that extra bedroom right about now…