Humid with showers Sat. & Sun. then more nice weather

This “Chamber of Commerce” weather will continue for a few more days before return flow from the south increases the humidity for the weekend. Showers and thunderstorms will arrive with a weak cold front early Sunday morning. Most of the energy with this system is moving far to the north (Sunday’s ECMWF was wrong) and therefore it won’t bring a lot of rain, but most of us should see a few tenths to maybe a half inch.

Then, it’s back to more of the same for next week: Sunny skies, low humidity, lows near 60, highs mostly low 80s.

Just because our fat lady has sung, the tropical Atlantic may yet hold a significant hurricane for someplace else. Details are in Long-Range Ramblings, and by the way….that storm that hit the Carolina’s should have been named.

The Foreca graphic looks good. Tomorrow and Thursday should feature low humidity, plenty of sun, highs mid 80s, lows 59-62 depending on your location. Humidity creeps up a bit for Friday and certainly for Saturday and Sunday morning. Highs won’t budge, but low temperatures will come up to about 70 by Sunday morning. We also run the risk of some light early morning fog on Friday and Saturday, more likely in inland river valleys or near farm ponds.

Any Saturday AM showers should be over the water — sometimes the models smooth some of this onto the land. However, we do have a 30% chance of scattered late afternoon or evening showers on Saturday which should move from the south. The main event is a line of showers and storms arriving with the front from the NW in the early morning hours on Sunday. A few sprinkles might linger until noon before clearing sets in..

Then, it’s back to more of the same with a lovely period of sunny weather from Monday through next Thursday. Highs generally low 80s, lows near 60 — the only exception could be Tuesday’s 85.

For those of us in SE Louisiana and Coastal MS, at least the fronts are beginning to come with the next one (after this weekend) arriving approximately Friday Oct. 24. That will be our next chance of rain following the one this Sunday. The big question is whether this will this bring down significantly cooler air from up north? Models have been inconsistent, but it’s getting that time of year where we wake up to strange silence: The AC has stopped running. For example, the latest ECMWF model shows a low near 50 and a high near 70 with wind for Sat. Oct. 25. But… I want to see other models agree before I take that one to the bank.

In the tropics, the ECMWF and the American GFS are in better agreement than the all-important jet stream over the Pacific. Both are showing a tropical system developing in the Western Caribbean somewhere between Jamaica and the Yucatan on either Friday Oct. 24 or Saturday Oct. 25. Possible destinations could be South Florida or the Yucatan Peninsula and the Bay of Campeche.

I know you’ve heard me mention this 4-6 weeks ago as a possible place for development and it never panned out. But, look at this as the meteorological equivalent of football’s two-minute drill. Patterns that hold sway the entire game (err..season), tend to break down when the defense changes as the end draws nigh. Will see if my analogy holds or whether I’ve just been watching too many SEC and Big 10 football games.