Humidity returns on Monday

The wind shifted to the north around 2 AM last night on the Northshore and less humid air started slowly filtering in. Plus, it’s been ever-so-slightly cooler with highs of about 88-89 in most places. Morning lows will drop down into the mid-upper 60s (Northshore), low 70s South. So, this is much better for that morning walk or swim since the pool water is still warm enough without be a sauna. We’re also in for an extended period of sunny weather through next Thursday morning.

Unfortunately, all good things come to an end and by late Monday or Tuesday, you’ll notice that the humidity has returned. Morning lows will slowly climb back into the mid-70s and the highs will hit around 90-92. Shower chances won’t return until next Thursday afternoon.

The Foreca graphic looks pretty realistic except for the unrealistic Sunday and Monday afternoon showers. Someone needs to tell this Finnish forecasting model that pop-up afternoon storms for no reason don’t happen here after mid-September. Shower and thunderstorm chances go up for next Friday because of an approaching cold front but even here, I think they are over playing the rainfall. Note that the highs come down with the increased cloud cover next Friday, but the morning lows go up late in the week because of the humidity.

One of the music genre’s I listen to is Hebrew Christian worship where a crooning tenor named Paul Wilbur sings the line “Soon, but not Yet” in reference to the Messiah’s certain but unpredictable return. That’s about the way I see fall weather arriving here. Recall that I said forecasting the first real cold front here was the most challenging forecast I make here all year.

This map shows the European model surface forecast for a week from Sunday Oct. 4. The arcing band of green stretching down the Appalachians from Penn State (where all good weather geeks grow) down the Appalachians to central Louisiana marks a cold front that will come tantalizingly close. But because upper winds are parallel to the front, it may not make it through.

Many of you have outdoor or travel plans for the weekend of Oct. 3 & 4 since it is a school holiday in St. Tammany Parish. At this point, the weather does not look good with a slow moving front giving us showery weather that will be tough to clear. The real enigma is whether we will get into some nice fall weather behind the front. Right now, I’m not betting on it. If it does come through, it may give us a day or two of cloudy cooler weather Oct. 5 & ^ before it gets humid again. But sometime in mid-October the dam will break and we’ll start seeing noticeably nice weather.

Foreca graphic for Pensacola Beach shows a lovely weekend. The, the Finnish forecast fantasizes some Monday and Tuesday rain that I have a hard time believing. Highs are in the 80s at the beach.