"Iffy" rain chances this weekend

Looking at the sky as well as the composite radar imagery below, you’d think rain was imminent. Not so because of a layer of dry air near the ground. All of the radar imagery east of Lafayette is showing rain aloft that isn’t reaching the ground. The clouds will, however, keep our nighttime temperature 10 degrees warmer than last night.

Those light showers reflect a flow of Gulf moisture streaming north and northeast. Some of the showers tomorrow will move into the Southshore and Tangipahoa Parish but rain chances elsewhere are slim. As mentioned in Sunday’s letter, a cold front on Friday and Saturday will get no closer than Central Arkansas, but thunderstorm lines developing near it may tear off in our direction because strong ones tend to self-propagate into the overnight hours. On Friday night, the models show the storms dying near McComb but refiring in our area during the day on Saturday. Even still, I doubt most of us would get a half-inch.

The Foreca graphic shows a warming trend leaving us with an early summer, humid feel to the air by next Tuesday with highs in the upper 80s. Tonight, I can’t see the 54 degree reading Foreca is calling for with all the clouds and flow off the Gulf. Even 60 degrees might be a stretch. Tomorrow and Thursday will be prettier days with more sun and highs in the low 80s — just like California without the taxes. Again, there’s a chance of light showers on the Southshore, River Parishes, and Tangipahoa tomorrow afternoon.

I can’t completely rule out a light shower on Friday. We might see a few in the afternoon hours and if those storms up north overachieve, they could make it down here shortly after midnight. Most likely they’ll stop before they enter into Louisiana ( they’re smart enough to dump the rain north of here so they won’t have to pay the inventory tax). All things considered, Saturday features the better chance of showers and maybe a thunderstorm, but still no more than 50%. Some people could get a half inch. Shower chances go down on Sunday — my take is that they will mainly be on the Southshore.

Monday looks dry (Naturally!), but another system that won’t make it through will threaten us with a small chance of a light shower on Tuesday.

Next Thursday April 30 looks mostly sunny, hot, and humid with highs in the upper 80s. But next Friday, May 1 should bring a change with another cold front moving in with its showers and storms. The first weekend of May looks to be nice with lower humidity, highs in the upper 70s and lows in the low to mid 50s. Summer isn’t rushing in this year.

Our first look at Pensacola Beach this year shows not ideal beach weather for this weekend. Though the precipitation chances and amounts are less than here, the wind will be ripping, the sand will be flying, the danger signs will be flapping, and the waves will be crashing. (and they said I couldn’t write in high school). If you must go for the beach, consider driving that extra dreaded two hours down US90 to Panama City. Air and water temperatures will be a few degrees higher and the wind will be lower.