Improving weather

I didn’t write a newsletter yesterday because I had cataract surgery earlier in the day. My eyesight is a bit better this morning, so I’ll make a brief post.

My quick take is that neither the National Weather Service nor the Foreca graphics are communicating the situation properly — both are over-forecasting the rain. Yesterday’s fall off in rainfall was due to mid-level dryness, a feature that is with us this morning. But out to our west near Lake Charles is a perfect arc of thunderstorms moving in our direction. It will start to fall apart as it moves through the Baton Rouge area as it moves away from the dynamics that created it and moves into dry air aloft. Nevertheless, some of it will make it into parts of the New Orleans area later this afternoon. The upper air feature that generated it will be moving into our area tomorrow giving us a better chance of showers and storms.

Then, we’re in for a few days with much lower rainfall chances - Friday and Saturday followed by another chance of showers and storms Sunday afternoon. And so it goes….a few nice days followed by one where there’s a good chance of showers or storms. This is a much better situation than a few days back when we were stuck with torrential rain systems. A few more specifics follow.

Yes! I simply removed my bandages from yesterday’s surgery and placed them on this Foreca graphic which badly needed it. Today, we’re off to a mostly sunny start but clouds will move in from the storms out west during the afternoon hours. Late afternoon and evening shower and thunderstorms chances are about 40% in Western St. Tammany, Tangipahoa, and the Southshore — 20% elsewhere.

Tomorrow, the mid-level will moisten up and an upper weakness associated with today’s Western Louisiana storms will move over us increasing the rain chances. They will develop somewhere over SE Louisiana and move into Coastal MS, where the heavier afternoon storms should be located. Even if the showers miss you tomorrow, more clouds should keep the temperatures a few degrees cooler.

Friday, I can’t rule out a brief morning or mid-day shower, but they will be quite scattered with much more sun. A much better day. Saturday, any showers will be extremely isolated as the sun and heat build in. The next system arrives Sunday afternoon or evening, fingers crossed that it arrives towards sunset so we can get in a good weekend.

The American GFS, the model meteorologists love to beat up on, is showing a tropical system forming near the Yucatan in the Southern Gulf June 2 and 3. Though the GFS is known to have an itchy trigger finger, it’s often very helpful in situations like this because it clues us on areas to watch. If something does develop, it would move in a northeast direction. Also, it could just be a rain-producing trough rather than a tropical storm.

The general thinking is that the first week of June will have its share of showers and storms, much of it depending on that tropical system. However, the further we get into June, the less rain we will get.