Increasing shower chances starting Sunday

The heat is on with sunny skies and highs everywhere reaching the low and mid 90s with that patented Gulf Coast humidity. Scattered showers on Sunday will be the first sign of a weather change on Sunday afternoon. However, high temperatures will remain unchanged.

Chances kick up a notch for Monday when many of us will see showers and storms starting in the morning hours. Highs will stay in the upper 80s because of increased cloud cover. However, the day when everyone should see showers and storms will be Tuesday courtesy of a weak cold front that will stumble its way into our area. The graphic below shows where the NWS expects the front on Tuesday morning, though showers will be scattered out well ahead of the front. With cloudy skies highs may struggle to get much above 80.

Shower chances go down Wednesday morning and skies could clear out by afternoon. Wednesday morning lows could see some upper 60s in rural inland areas, though most of us on the Northshore won’t drop below 72. Highs next Wednesday will stay in the mid 80s - nice. After that, its back to 90 degree heat and humidity until further notice.

The Foreca graphic clearly shows the rainfall peak on Tuesday, but lingers the rain longer than I would forecast next Wednesday. Here’s a few details….

On Friday and Saturday, there could be an isolated shower on the Southshore in the afternoon, but chances are less than 20% and I doubt that the Northshore will see anything. Sunday afternoon and evening scattered showers seem more likely on the Southshore and in inland locations on the Northshore, such as near Hammond, Covington, and Picayune plus areas to the north and west.

On Monday chances improve to 50-50 or higher with storms developing in the late morning hours near the Lake and Sound before moving inland in the afternoon. Showers and storms should redevelop Monday night into Tuesday morning giving everyone rainfall. With a slow moving front and multiple rounds, I wouldn’t be surprised to see someone get street flooding with multiple inches. Many of us will get an inch.

After this system moves on through, expect low shower chances with hot and humid weather for at least another week — probably until the end of the month.

In the tropics, a train of tropical moisture is streaming NW over the Yucatan and, with low wind shear, there’s a small chance a tropical depression could form in the Bay of Campeche on Saturday. Regardless, this system looks to head into the upper Mexican coast between Tampico and Brownsville, Texas.

Foreca graphic for Pensacola Beach shows winds picking up Sunday and rain arriving for Tuesday and Wednesday. Friday and Saturday will be marvelous.