Isaias: Few Power Outages MS Gulf Coast

This afternoon’s IR satellite image shows an impressive storm that is clearly moving to the east. The white in the middle is not the eye, but rather the cold cloud tops of the intense thunderstorms. All indications are that it will overcome a modest amount of shear in the next 24 hours and show significant intensification into a Cat. 2 hurricane by the time it reaches the middle of the Gulf early Friday. Then, it will race north-northeast, drawn by an opening ahead of an entering upper trough.

The official NHC track, which I agree with, has shifted eastward and now is set to the showers that were over the Florida Peninsula on Tuesday are now set to make landfall near (and perhaps obliterate) the infamous Florabama Bar at the Alabama-Florida line Friday night. As it approaches the coast, it will experience greater westerly wind shear and should knock the maximum winds down a category. It will also tend to push the storm to the east, which is one reason why NHC has adjusted the storm in that direction. Recall, that is where the AI models were pointing several days ago. Also, some of the AI models have verified the best so far with this storm. Note that tropical storm force winds will extend well inland in Alabama. There will be extensive power outages in South Alabama and the Panhandle of Florida from Panama City to Pensacola.

In our area, I hardly expect anything in SE Louisiana. 1-3 feet of surge in the Lake. NE Winds Friday evening 25 mph gusting to 37 and little rain at all in Western St. Tammany — maybe a few tenths in Slidell. Along the immediate MS Gulf Coast, I can see tropical storm force gusts that could bring down tree branches and cause a few power outages. Even there, winds along I-10 will be 10-15 mph lower than on the beach.

So don’t let the Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches spook you too much. The NWS tends to over-warn on the periphery of these storms.

Because the ECMWF is not in line with the official NHC forecast, I can’t show you the graphic. Here’s my take in a nutshell….

Thursday Low 65 High 87 Sunny Beautiful

Friday Low 69 High 80 Increasing Clouds, Late Afternoon - Night rain from Slidell east. For winds and water level — see above

Saturday Low 68 High 81 Rain ending near daybreak. Then, partly cloudy

Sunday Low 64 High 83 Sunny, Loevely

Monday Low 67 High 86 Sunny

Tuesday Low 69 High 87 Partly Cloudy - a bit more humid

Wednesday Low 70 High 88 Partly Cloudy