Last Week of 90 degree weather

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It’s been a rough summer season for forecasting and I’m happy that it will be winding down in the next few weeks. Yes, the hurricane season, or lack of one, was an easy call, but small scale shower systems have been whimsical to say the least The pattern is starting to break down, so we’ll soon be saying goodbye to the 90-degree heat and hello to some easier weather to forecast.

This afternoons infra-red imagery shows no shower activity near us. However, a narrow, curved band of showers in the Gulf shows a moisture surge which is coming in our general direction for tomorrow afternoon - so rain chances will go up into the likely or scattered category for all but a few inland areas — see details below.

That wave of moisture will move on by, dropping the shower risk to very low for Tuesday. Another surge of moisture arrives for Wednesday upping chances, but a significant change happens on Thursday. This European model forecast of total atmospheric moisture shows significant dry air (browns & yellows) arriving from the Northeast for Thursday. This dry air will kill any shower chances for a few days and give us somewhat less humid air with night-time lows dipping into the upper 60s for rural, inland locations and low 70s for most of the rest of us on the Northshore. Daytime highs will largely be unaffected. But there’s hope in the long-range for bringing those down.

The Foreca graphic shows the lower morning low temperatures on the Northshore from Thursday to Sunday - sorry Southshore, you’ll have to wait.. As usual, they overdue the rain chances. Monday afternoon’s rain chances are 70% Southshore, 60% St. Tammany Parish, maybe 30% from Franklinton to Bogalusa to Picayune to Bay St. Louis. Practically zero to the north and east of that.

Wednesday’s rain chances appear lower, maybe 30-40% following a very similar pattern with higher chances on the Southshore and in the Slidell-Mandeville area, dropping off to practically zero inland. The next rain system arrives with scattered showers. mainly Southshore on Sunday becoming more likely for most of us on Monday Sept. 21.

Tuesday Sept. 22 features higher than normal rain chances with a leftover front in the area. Two of the three models I rely on move that front through as does Accuweather and the Weather Channel. That would give us our first taste of early fall weather with three days of sunny weather starting next Thursday Sept. 24 with lows upper 60s and highs mid-80s. Actually, I’d call that more like a nice summer day that New York or Chicago often experiences.

There’s nothing go on in the tropics. The National Hurricane Center is giving a 20% chance of system to develop SE of Bermuda by the end of the week which would be unlikely to effect us.

Foreca graphic for Pensacola Beach shows a lovely, breezy week. Keep in mind that NE winds from Wed. to Friday may make the bay choppy but will kill off the surf on the ocean side.