Lazy Labor Day for Weathermen

Don’t tune into the Weather Channel expecting Jim Cantore to show up at a beach. Unlike most Labor Days when Gulf and East Coast weathermen are super busy, there is NOTHING going on. In fact, the tropics are quiet EVERYWHERE around the globe. In fact, the global storm total (and total energy) is well below normal. That is really unusual - creepy, in fact. But I bet you won’t hear that on your evening news.

One of the reasons in the Gulf and Atlantic, is a lot of westerly winds due to deep trough over the Eastern U.S. This causes wind shear (the red areas in the map below show high shear for this Thursday), and its also causing a less humid week for us along the Gulf Coast. Don’t expect this to continue for the entire month of September, I expect some tropical development in the Atlantic in about 10 days; the soonest in the Gulf would be 17 days. Read on for details.

The Foreca graphic has the right idea but extends the chance of showers into Thursday, when I think it will move out by Wednesday evening (except, perhaps the immediate MS Gulf Coast). Looking at this chronologically.

Labor Day will be another nice one with sunny skies. Areas well inland (think Bogalusa-Lumberton), could see some mid 60s for morning lows. Otherwise, many rural suburban areas on the Northshore could see a 68 or 69. Highs upper 80s. Too bad Southshore! Lake Ponchartrain is too hot to let you see much of any change.

Tuesday and Wednesday’s weather will be a bit more humid, with lows closer to 70 and highs maybe a degree cooler. A few more afternoon clouds and a 20-30% chance of a late afternoon shower or storm. Amounts should be light,

Thursday through Sunday: Sunny and seasonably hot. Highs near 90. Lows near 70. Time to water grass, outdoor potted plants, and any new plantings.

Locally, expect a few more showers and storms by the middle of the following week, around Sept. 10. September tends to be a month with a big difference between inland locations, which tend to be hot and dry, and locations right on the Lake and Sound which receive more rain and feel more like Florida than Texas.

In the tropics, the only thing worth mentioning are a few disturbances coming off Africa. The ECMWF model develops one of these into a tropical storm east of the islands in about five days, and then moves it due north. This will most likely not impact the U.S.

The long-range European tropical cyclone probabilities show a more active pattern by the third week. Though the most likely locations are north of Haiti and off the East Coast, some parts of the NE and SW Gulf are showing a chance of development. My guess is that the earliest this could take place in the Gulf is around Sept. 17.

One of the concerns I have of a late-blooming season is a dynamic, “end game” featuring one or two significant storms followed by a big rush of cold air ushering in fall. This might be the year for such a scenario, but it’s too early to say when or where.

Foreca graphic for Pensacola Beach shows really nice weather with the exception of some high winds tomorrow and Tuesday. In fact, if I were an Alabama fan I might just want to head down there next week instead of Bryant-Denny.