Less Humid & Cooler AM Thurs. & Friday

The forecast surface map for early tomorrow morning shows a weak, “backdoor” cold front approaching us from the northeast. This will have two effects. First, it will bring us scattered showers and thundershowers mid-day to early afternoon. Second, starting tomorrow evening, it will switch the winds around to ENE bringing in some less humid air and cooler morning temperatures that will last a few days. Humidity blows back in Saturday evening and shower chances return on Monday.

The real conundrum lies in the long-range.

The Foreca graphic looks perfect - as though I drew it myself. Tomorrow’s rain chances are only about 40% along the I-10/I-12 corridor and the Southshore. Chances drop off for Washington and Northern Pearl River County — maybe 20%. Then four days without rain and many less-developed areas of the Northshore should see Friday morning lows in the mid 60s. Sorry Southshore, that 12-foot deep lake full of crabs is too toasty and is getting in the way from that cooler air reaching you! You’ll stop at 74.

That 40% chance of afternoon showers and storms returns for Monday and Tuesday.

Much uncertainty exists for late next week and beyond. Models are in extreme disagreement, which can happen when the big blocking subtropical highs begin to break up at the end of a long summer. The American GFS, a model I normally won’t bet on, agrees with the European AI, a model I like, in bringing a significant cold front through Friday Sept. 25. Both the Weather Channel and Accuweather agree with these. Unfortunately, the ECMWF, usually the best model, radically disagrees with no cold air in sight anywhere near the South.

This matters not just because it could break summer’s heat (We’d drop to 85 deg. highs, 65 lows), but because the Southern Gulf is looking like it could support tropical development about 10 days from now.. There will be deep tropical moisture and favorable upper level winds - building blocks that have been in short supply this season. The forecast of what happens over the Southern US will determine the chances and movement of anything that develops here. If the GFS and European AI are correct, anything that develops here would go east to Florida. But that’s a BIG IF that we’ll have to watch out for.

Foreca graphic for Pensacola Beach shows a top notch late summer weekend with a lovely NE breeze. Next week starts out wet and tropical.