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The sopping wet level of humidity has got me longing for the first cold front, but where’s the promised rain? With the exception of a rogue storm near Hammond, they were stuck over in Harrison County! The circulation over the SE Gulf on Sunday did move in our direction, but it elongated itself in a north-south direction and only got as far west as offshore from Pascagoula. I knew that when I stated that the heavier amounts were more likely in the Biloxi area - but I figured that many of us would still see a few tenths or a half inch. Not so.

That system is heading north then NE and should be north of Mobile by mid-day tomorrow. This means we won’t be seeing any significant rain here. However, with breaks in the cloud cover over the Gulf (see below), I think we’ll see more sun and more heating on Wednesday, which should mean that a few showers should pop up by late in the afternoon. Otherwise, the heat is back on starting late this week with typical 30-40% shower and storm chances.

Out in the middle of the tropical Atlantic, there’s underachieving Tropical Storm Erin. It looks weaker than yesterday with few storms near the center but a clear, low level circulation. Water temperatures are marginal and the storm is zipping along too fast to intensify. It’s also heading a bit south of due west, which has some implications as I discuss in “Long Range Ramblings”. Bottom line for us in the Gulf: No worries from Erin.

The Foreca graphic overdoes the rain for the first few days because they use larger scale models that can’t adequately resolve the system in the Gulf. My take is that showers tomorrow will mostly hold off until late afternoon and be mostly over land. I do not know why this graph goes hog wild with the rain Friday morning.

Temperatures will warm to the low-mid 90s after Wednesday with typical morning showers near the Lake and Sound, and afternoon ones inland. Sometimes I can see patterns where coverage and amounts will be higher some days than others, but no luck with my crystal ball (err…prophetic mantle, scientific guesswork?) this week. On the Northshore…Humidity levels should come down a bit from the absurdly sopping levels to the merely disgusting ones in a few days

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Erin, like all other tropical storms heads west under the Bermuda high until it strengthens, at which point it’s God-given mission is to redistribute excess heat from the tropics northward. So, the storm scoots around the periphery of the high looking for any breaks to round the corner and curve northward. OK, let’s apply that to Erin.

Erin should remain weak for another 36-48 hours, then gradually strengthen becoming a hurricane as it ends up a few hundred miles north of the Virgin Islands late Saturday. See the official NHC plot below with my possible extensions based on long-range models. None of the models show it threatening any of the islands, nor have they for any of their previous runs.

Things get a bit more interesting a few days later after the storm passes Puerto Rico. Models develop Erin into a major hurricane and forecast that it will reach the end of the Bermuda High and make a break northward to bring its heat to New Englanders, or Icelanders, or Greenlanders, or mariners, or Laplanders (You get the point).

Right now, none of the models bring it over the U.S., though a few threaten Bermuda. It’s a bit too early to rule out Cape Hatteras, but I’d rate the odds at under 10%. Again, the Bermuda High is just too far to the east to think of pushing this into Florida or the Gulf. Some of the models are developing a system behind Erin, but there’s no consensus on that one yet.

Foreca graphic for Pensacola Beach finally shows nice weather beginning Thursday. Other than the jellyfish (Can someone tell me if they were bad this year?) and all of the start-up school activities, this would be a great weekend to make it over there.