Long-Range Easier than Next Week

It’s one of those rare times when I feel more confident about the weather beginning 9 days from now than next week. Easter Sunday will bring some pesky widely scattered showers that won’t amount to anything, but the challenge begins with a dying front that approaches our area on Monday. There could be showers and maybe a thunderstorm anytime from Tuesday - Friday next week with different models forecasting different scenarios. For once, I’m going to lean more towards the American, German, and Canadian models as opposed to the European. This means that I have marked up the Foreca graphics to indicate what I think is most likely.

Here’s my key points:

1) One more barely cool night, then the warmth and humidity is on with temperatures stuck in the 66-84 degree range.

2) Sunday’s slight chance of a brief, piddly shower will be mainly Northshore and MS Gulf Coast. Again, if you see one it will wet the ground and be gone in 5 minutes. Cloudy skies, however, will prevail for Saturday and Sunday with only a few peeks of sun.

3) I think the Foreca forecast graph is underestimating the amount of rain and chance of showers & thundershowers on Monday. A few tenths of an inch seem likely over most areas except Harrison and coastal Hancock Counties where showers are more if-fy.

4) As the front dies, a really tough forecast for next Tuesday and Wednesday. I see no clear pattern to scattered, mainly afternoon showers, but some models drop the rain completely. Probabilities are maybe 30 percent and amounts will be light. Skies should brighten with a mix of sun and clouds

5) Showers and storms look to increase for next Thursday with an upper level system threatens from the west, but the Foreca (based on the European) seems to overdue the precipitation.

As the Bermuda High builds west and an upper level ridge builds, expect sunny warm, humid, but dry weather from next Saturday April 26 - May 2. Highs 84-87, lows upper 60s with almost no chance of rain. That’s a bit above normal. Models all seem to be in agreement and we often see dry spells in May.

Foreca graphic for Pensacola Beach. Highs 74-78 and a few decent beach days tomorrow and Saturday but surf will get rough because of the wind (see bottom strip) with rip current hazards late Saturday into Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. Scattered showers possible late Monday or early Tuesday and again on Thursday and Friday, but Foreca overdoes the amounts. Again, I expect a really fine stretch of weather there from April 26-May 2.