Lovely, Cool Fall Weekend Ahead

This morning’s fog is a sure sign of fall - in the summer, we just don’t have the long nights and cooling over land needed to support fog. Since the atmosphere here is “stuck” until the cold front arrives, we’ll have to be on the watch for patchy fog through Friday morning. At least the fog cuts down on solar heating for a few hours keeping the mornings cool. But by noon, the temperature shoots up well into the 80s.

Also - a sure sign of fall - I’m stopping the Pensacola area beach forecast since the hurricane has ended the tourist season there. In place, I will try to post a Southshore temperature graphic.

The big change will happen sometime Friday evening. You’ll notice a north wind picking up and the temperature falling as a genuine cold front plows on through. It’s light jacket time if you walk the dog at the crack of dawn Saturday morning with Northshore temperatures in the mid- to upper-50s and a nice breeze. Weekend highs should stay in the mid- to upper-70s with bright sunshine. Just lovely!

But all good things come to an end, and in this case you’ll notice the change Sunday night. This American GFS model forecast of surface weather for Sunday evening shows the wind turning towards the east (blue arrows) and scattered showers offshore pointed in the general direction of the Southshore. The humidity returns by Monday morning with morning lows rising back up into the 60s, but the chance of showers will be confined to the Southshore and River Parishes in the afternoon hours.

The Foreca graphic clearly shows the cooler air this weekend. The 74 degree high on Saturday will feel amazing - like stepping off a plane in Seattle after a summer in the Big Easy. Sunday morning’s low will also be something we haven’t seen since early April. Also note the wind. Saturday morning’s breeze will come down by evening..

Shower chances early next week should be confined to the Southshore. .

Shower chances Monday on the Southshore and River Parishes are about 30%; 20% Tuesday and Wednesday. Amounts will be very light. Winds will be stronger than the Northshore because the warm Lake will transfer heat. Lows won’t get to 60, but it will still feel nice. Unfortunately, they rebound back into the 70s for next week.

I really can’t tell you when we’ll see the next decent rain here. The next chance of any rain on the Northshore is next Thursday or Friday — it won’t be much and it’s “iffy”. I also don’t see 50 degree weather for quite a while after this weekend.

Though it looks like hurricane season is over for us and nothing will happen in the next week, the Atlantic might see another one. Very preliminary indications are that something could form in the NW Caribbean just south of Cuba during the week of the 26th. We’ll keep you posted but you practically have to a have a storm move into (or form in) the Bay of Campeche and then have just the right upper air conditions for anything to head our way this late in the season.