Low shower chances until Sunday

The atmospheric spigot is officially in the off position. High pressure to our east and a ridge aloft are making it difficult for any puffy, want-a-be cumulonimbus to grow past a cumulus. Tomorrow and Thursday look bone dry, and then there’s spotty chances Friday afternoon, better chances Sunday afternoon, and again Monday morning which I’ll explain in the next section.

However, the best chance for showers and storms is with a weak front Tuesday evening to early Wednesday morning. This is the ECMWF forecast for Tuesday morning showing that the Western Carolina High which I showed in the last newsletter will be replaced by a low with a cold front heading trailing in the direction of Houston (dashed blue line). It has good upper air support as you can see by those colored wavy lines over West Texas and Oklahoma. This not only looks to give us a good chance of rain but knock the highs down into the mid 80s for a day and lower the humidity for a few hours next Wednesday and Thursday. Not much, but it’s pretty impressive that a front would even make it this far in mid-June.

The Foreca graphic does pretty well except it cuts the high temperatures a bit too much next Monday and Tuesday. Even my “88” and “85” might be a bit low. Starting with tomorrow and Thursday —- sunny, hot, and humid with highs upper 80s to low 90s. Friday will see a few afternoon showers form near I-10 in Mississippi and press inland towards Bogalusa and Pearl River County during the late afternoon hours. A few could develop elsewhere on the Northshore. Rain chances 20-30% and amounts will be light.

Saturday looks even hotter with very spotty,light showers — less than 20% chance in the afternoon. Sunday afternoon’s shower and thundershower chances kick up a notch on both sides of the lake — 40-50% seems reasonable to me. Monday could feature some early morning showers and storms on the Northshore, then the activity will shift northward out of the area and there will be more sun than clouds.

Late Tuesday or early AM Wednesday will feature the showers and storms with the front. Almost everyone should see some rain from this. All told, weekly rainfall totals Wednesday through Wednesday should average about an inch without the risk of street flooding deluges.

After the Tuesday-Wednesday event, expect a week of sunny weather. If we are lucky and that front pushes through, next Wednesday’s highs will be in the mid 80s and Thursday’s lows could be in the mid 60s. Nice. Then….we'll quickly pop back up with typical low 90s summer heat and humidity without much chance for showers. The dry spell could continue until the end of the month.

Foreca graphic for Pensacola Beach shows some really nice beach weather with plenty of sun, a nice breeze and highs mid 80s through Monday. Winds pick up a bit Sunday afternoon. surf, Showers with the front hold off until Wednesday.