Mardi Gras Outlook including Florida

Welcome to a week of beautiful weather all along the Gulf Coast and Florida. Here in the New Orleans area, that early Sunday morning line of thunderstorms should pass between 1 AM (Hammond area) and 7 AM (Biloxi) which will not interfere with the parades. Yes, there’s a possibility of light shower Saturday afternoon and early evening as well as chance of one late Sunday morning or early that afternoon. However, those should be little more than a nuisance. Highs should be near 70 or in the 70s all week with the exception of an 80 in some inland Northshore areas on Thursday and Friday.

The Foreca graphic looks perfect. Fog is possible tomorrow morning in an otherwise partly cloudy day. Saturday will feature more clouds than sun and that should kill the fog chances. Sunday’s clouds should break up by early afternoon.

Monday and Fat Tuesday morning’s lows will be a bit cooler as dry air moves in behind the front with a light north wind. Fog will not be an issue either day. Both days look just about perfect and that’s been obvious for the last week. Don’t you just love modern weather forecasting? (Hold the applause for the nerds that make it possible).

Sunday morning’s rain totals look a bit more meager due to its rapid movement —a few tenths to a half-inch if you get lucky. Next Friday night’s rain looks “iffy” at this point. Some models see it, while others don’t.

Expect temperatures to moderate a few degrees with highs getting back down to the mid 70s next weekend. A significant cold front should approach late next Sunday night Feb. 22 or Monday Feb. 23. This will bring the next round of showers and storms, but how much of a cool off will there be? I present the ECMWF temperature outlook for that period with some trepidation. Their AI model disagrees and drops Tuesday and Wednesday Feb. 24 and 25 lows into the mid 40s with highs staying in the upper 50s. Even if that verifies, it won’t be a frost event and the cold air will quickly blow out after a few cold mornings. The upper air pattern is unstable at month’s end with rapid changes likely.

Foreca graphic for Orlando shows a really nice week with highs mostly upper 70s and lows in the 50s. Mickey is smiling as he is banking on your presence. Our Sunday AM front moves through there a day later early Monday AM and drops Monday highs to about 72. Still lovely! The only concern is early AM fog.

For those stopping in the Panhandle, though the skies will be sunny, it will be noticeably cooler at the beach. Most temperatures will stay in the upper 60s during the day and the wind will be high near Sunday’s rain. Still, if you are going over there just to get away, play some golf, shop, swim at the pool, and walk the beach when its not too windy - you can have a good week. Just bring a light jacket….