May all storms be like Bertha

Two days of off-and-on cloud cover, a few brief showers, highs held down into the 80s and a bit of breeze - I’ll take that anytime in July or August. Why that warranted a Tropical Storm Warning, a Coastal Flood Warning, and — of all things — a Heat Advisory I’ll never know. It’s not that the Weather Service has incompetent forecasters, it’s that Washington is forcing their hand. I pity businessmen who lost money because they were forced to suspend operations or take action because of these warnings. Oh well, that’s why I’m here for you as well as veterans like Bob Breck.

Tomorrow will be back to normal with sunny skies and highs in the low 90s. But after that, heat will build big time across the area with near 100 degree weather early next week. The reason: An upper air ridge (heat dome) will build over the Midwest and us. This gives us dry, warm, sinking air aloft that will put a lid on cumulus development. This ECMWF forecast for Sunday shows the huge ridge in red. That wave pattern is also very stable and won’t move much for several days.

Then, towards the end of next week, the ridge shifts westward allowing a trough with cooling air aloft to move in our direction. This means that cumulus clouds will grow into showers and thunderstorms. My take is that this will happen starting next Thursday evening, but will peak the following Sunday or Monday Aug. 2-3. Here’s the same ECMWF forecast for that Sunday showing a trough with those cooler temperatures aloft just to our northeast.

Other than the “lower-than-they-should-be” high temperatures, the Foreca graphic looks great with this totally easy forecast. I add about 3 degrees to the curve before I post the highs in black letters. 99-degree heat could easily be 101 in some rural inland locations and in New Orleans’s CBD, but they could be 2-3 degrees cooler along the lake and sound. Humidity will be high and there won’t be much of a breeze, so real-feel temperatures will brutal - maybe 117? Expect heat advisories. My take is that next Tuesday will be the hottest day of the year.

The showers and storms will arrive from the north and east Thursday evening or Friday of next week. Storms after a heat wave that arrive at twilight are often loaded with lightning, making it fun to watch.

We’re in a pattern where we get 5 days or a week of wet weather followed by a solid week or 10 days of dry weather. The wet spell should last from next Thursday or Friday through August 5 or 6 before turning dry. There’s nothing new in the tropics and I’m not expecting anything for the next 10 days..

Foreca graphic for Pensacola Beach shows that skies have cleared, the surf is down, and the weather will be nice for a few days. Highs are near 90 to lower 90s with a nice breeze. Winds will pick up by Sunday and early Monday - so watch for beach flags. No serious rainfall threat until next Thursday. Not much different that here. By the way, NW Florida and Coastal Alabama did receive tropical storm force gusts and some vehicles were stuck in the sand when the water came up — so warnings were warranted there.