Meteorologist vacationing: Watch out!

Yes, Denise and I are heading out the door for two weeks in the wilds. I was hoping to sporadically post but my laptop is telling me otherwise. While I take a well deserved rest from squinting at squiggly lines, my word to the wise is: Watch it. I’ve been out of town during some notable events in the last ten years, such as Hurricanes Zeta and Ida. It could happen again. This year it won’t be a hurricane, but flash flooding is certainly possible - maybe even likely — with the weak cold front coming in for late Monday - Wednesday morning.

Here’s a brief summary of what I see happening. Tomorrow through Sunday look very similar to today. Hot, humid, partly sunny weather with highs in the low 90s. There’s very low rain chances Saturday and only 20% evening shower chances on Sunday.

Monday, things change as tropical moisture streams north. Showers could pop up anytime with a 50-50 chance of rain Southshore, 60 percent where most of my readers live along the I-12 corridor in LA and the I-10 one in Mississippi. Inland, showers and storms are almost certain in the afternoon with a heavy rain threat. The atmosphere will be juiced with moisture, then add both low level convergence and upper level divergence, so BANG. 2-3” of rain in a hour and 4-6” totals in a few inland places (Northern St. Tammany, Washington, Most of Tangipahoa Parishes plus Pearl River County ?) are not out of the question. That’s why flash flooding is a concern.

Though storms could train over the same area causing a lot of rainfall in those inland areas, some of it will creep closer to the Lake and Sound by early Tuesday. The exact evolution of what happens on Tuesday is unknown so all I can say is keep up with the weather from late Monday through early Wednesday of next week.

Next Thursday will be a transition day with showers and storms still around, but not the threat for deluges. Friday could see some scattered ones as well. Then, we’re off to more hot, humid, mostly sunny, and rain-free weather from next Sat. June 20 - Wed. June 24. The next shower and storm threat could be June 25 or 26.

In the Gulf of Mexico, there’s a slim chance that the system in the Bay of Campeche could develop into a depression but whatever happens will end up very close to the Mexican Coast leaving little time for development. Otherwise, I’m not expecting anything in the next ten days.

Catch you in a few weeks….