Tornadoes, Hail Possible

Just like January’s snow, I very rarely make a forecast like this. But….All the ingredients are there for a few severe thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon and evening. Unlike the January snow, few of us will experience it but if you do, the results could be disastrous. Therefore, its prudent to understand the risk and take some precautions which I’ll share in the next section.

This graphic shows a high resolution forecast of what the thunderstorms could look like on radar at 2 PM. Though the model won’t catch the exact location of where each storm will be, the tendency for larger curved storms in a broad line is obvious. It’s also consistent with patterns that I see on the weather independent of models.

Timing: The threat begins in Tangipahoa Parish around noon, an hour later in Slidell, and about 2:30 or 3 over in Gulfport-Biloxi error. Similarly threat ends by about 3-4 PM in Tangipahoa Parish and Western St. Tammany, 5 PM in Eastern St. Tammany, and 6:30 in Gulfport-Biloxi.

Therefore, do all your chores in the morning. You don’t want to be on the road and face a severe thunderstorm. Keep up with the weather in the afternoon hours by looking at a phone app or a local TV station.

IF you get a warning, go to an interior room such as a bathroom. But don’t rely on a warning. These are fast moving storms and often are in their formative stages when they are close to the Lake or MS Sound. They don’t often put down long-track tornadoes that give you 15 minutes of warning like the ones in Hattiesburg or Birmingham.  If a significant looking storm is coming through, I’d get at least close to your sheltering location in case you hear something or the wind picks up.

Greatest threat areas: Probably Northshore, rather than South, but that’s so hard to say. Certainly expect to hear about damaging tornadoes further north in Mississippi and Alabama.

Though we are all concerned about tomorrow’s meteorological main event….

1) There could be a stray thunderstorm in Washington Parish and Northern Pearl River County very late tonight or in the pre-dawn hours. If you live up there, keep your NOAA Weather Radio or cell phone on to receive alerts just in case.

2) A very nice stretch of cooler than normal spring weather begins Sunday and lasts the week.

3) After tomorrow’s spotty storms which might dump a half inch at most, no rain for the next week. Ok, maybe there could be a piddly passing shower Wednesday night but it’s hardly worth mentioning.

4) Reinforcing shot of cold air comes in early Thursday AM dropping highs into 60s.

5) No frost in sight for most of us, though you could talk me into a 38 next Friday AM in a few cold pockets in Northern Pearl River County.

Next chance of rain probably a week from Monday, March 24, followed by another two or three cooler-than-normal days.

Maybe a brief warm up for the last few days of March, then another cooler-than-normal April.

More significant….drier than normal weather. This means many of us will be watering our gardens.