More showers, a bit cooler next week

Showers have been pretty piddly and located mainly on the Southshore today. Expect that trend to continue tomorrow followed by a dry Saturday. Shower chances could pick up as early as Sunday evening, but more likely Monday-early Wednesday. I’ll comment on our summer temperatures and rainfall in the long-range as well as a few more thoughts about the hurricane season.

The Foreca graphic overdoes the days with rainfall. Tomorrow (Friday’s) chances will be small (20%) with piddly amounts and should be mostly confined to the Southshore. Saturday looks dry and Sunday may feature a few showers in inland areas, such as Hammond, Folsom, and Bogalusa, during the afternoon. Other Northshore locations might see some dying showers and thunderstorms enter in from the north about the time the sun goes down.

Consequently, hot, mid-summer temperatures will prevail with highs 93-94 and lows mid 70s. Tack on another 5-6 degrees for you real-feel fans.

Next Monday and Wednesday feature higher rain chances, 50-60%, with storms developing 50-100 miles to our north and moving in our direction. A half inch or an inch of rain is not out of the question here. High temps. should cool a bit into the upper 80s.

Dry air may filter into inland portions of the Northshore cutting off the precipitation for Wednesday. Showers may still be possible early in the day for the 1-10/I-12 corridor and Southshore where most of us live. Then, for Thursday and Friday of next week, winds turn around and bring in deep tropical moisture from the Gulf giving us widespread shower and thunderstorm chances.

Expect a moist stretch from Thursday June 12 through the middle of the following week, June 17-18. Then, a week or two of dry weather.

For the entire summer, my outlook calls for average temperatures and precipitation here. That’s good news because there’s a big difference in the way 92 degrees feels (our average high temp in July) vs. 96, both to our bodies and our wallets (air conditioning bills).

Further north, expect a lot of heat in the heartland where temperatures should average 3-5 degrees above normal for places like Missouri, Iowa, South Dakota, and Colorado. Not the year for a big July trip to Branson, the Badlands, or the Brat-land (Wisconsin).

Concerning the hurricane season….have officially given up on anything of consequence in June. OK, there could be a weak tropical storm in the Bay of Campeche but it won’t head in our direction. Further east, the big reason for suppression is the Saharan Dust, almost always a big culprit in June and July — as the image below shows. So I’m not expecting anything until the second week of August at the earliest. Also: Long-range seasonal outlook modeling from Europe has backed off a bit on the hurricane season calling for an average or slightly above average season.

Foreca graphic for Pensacola Beach shows some nice weather through the weekend except for the winds (circled below) which could cause rough surf and rip currents. Watch out for the red flags. Highs will be nicer than here: mid 80s, maybe low 80s next week as showers and thunderstorms are likely Monday and Tuesday.