More Storms Wed-Fri.; Wkend ?able

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What a gorgeous weekend, but the real treat for us gardeners was the rain that preceded it. Storms Wed.-Friday last week turned out to be a real drought buster with widespread 3-5” rains, with the highest totals in areas well inland. Because Slidell experienced more long, slow rainfall than deluges, my soil soaked the water right up turning it into various citrus juices.

Models are indicating a deja vu with humid air returning late Tuesday, then several rounds of thunderstorms from this Wednesday evening through Friday morning, each pushing a bit further south. This picture of the European model Wednesday evening shows rainfall from a line of storms at the state line (technically, the 3-hour rains ending at 7 PM). But as the storms move SE away from the front that created them, they die as they approach I-12/I-10 (Madisonville-Slidell-Biloxi) several hours later.

Another round will probably fire off during the day on Thursday as a scattered batch, again mainly on the Northshore. Then, the coup-de-grace happens in the wee hours of Friday morning as another line marking a frontal passage lies between Washington and Tangipahoa Parishes on this 1 AM Friday forecast. This one should give widespread rain as it sweeps through the entire area.

Then, there’s next weekend where…your guess is as good as mine! The European insists on a clean frontal passage and sunny skies and a bit cooler air for Friday and Saturday with showers returning for late Sunday. But all the other models disagree keeping a dying front and showers around through the weekend. For the moment, I’ll hang my hat with the European since it’s been more accurate recently, but let’s just say that forecast could change by tomorrow. Also, don’t let the President know that I routinely buy into something produced in Europe, or he’ll slap a tariff on it.

You know what I’m going to say…The Foreca high temperatures are too cool. This forecast is also heavily weighted towards the European model and its kinfolk because of the frontal passage that it shows Friday morning. Note that if you lived further north and west, say Folsom or Bogalusa, the rainfall amounts would be higher on Wednesday evening and Thursday, giving you higher overall totals.

Obviously, tonight’s lows will be a lot warmer than 49, say closer to 60, on the Soutshore. Tomorrow’s 80 will still feel nice in the shade because of low humidity, but the humidity returns during the day on Tuesday. Tuesday and Wednesday will again feel more like early summer. If the front makes it through, the high temperatures will only cool a few degrees. for Friday and Saturday. It won’t be like this weekend. Bye, bye 40s and 50s - won’t see you again until October.

Rainfall will gradually taper off after mid-month. Expect a hotter late May with less precipitation and the trend should continue into early June. I’ll keep my eyes peeled for posts from my hurricane forecasting experts for any new insights since long-range models run in early June.

Foreca graphic for Pensacola Beach shows too much wind on Wednesday and Thursday to really enjoy the beach even through highs will hit the low 80s. Then a bit cooler with shower threats Friday and Monday — but like here, that could change. Bottom line: Not exactly beach weather yet.