More Confident Forecast

What a busted forecast for heavy rain last night! Last week I knew the Saturday forecast would be a difficult one because of the small system and time of year. Ironically, the heavy precipitation did break out, only it was this afternoon on the MS Gulf Coast and other areas east of us. Once those storms move on in the next few hours, the forecast gets much more confident for this week. Why? Bigger systems mean easier forecasts.

Next up: A dying cold front will move through during the late morning hours tomorrow sparking a line of thunderstorms. But the coolness will only last one morning on the Northshore with a bit drier air. Then, the heat and humidity is on until the next system arrives next Sunday. Only saving grace is that there will be quite a sea breeze. Locations within a few miles of the Lake or Sound on the Northshore or Gulf Coast will be 3-4 degrees cooler, and will feel more comfy because of the wind.

Here’s my key points:

1) Storms should move through quickly on Monday, in an hour or two, beginning about 7 AM in Northern Tangipahoa, and 8-11 AM for the rest of us. Storms could peter out by the time they get to Biloxi. Otherwise, a partly sunny day.

2) Tuesday morning will feel a bit better. Slightly lower humidity and temps in low 60s on the Northshore. Walk you dog and enjoy it because temps will warm quickly to near 80

3) An unusually hot and humid week is in store, but take off 3 or 4 degrees if you are near the water on the Northshore. Real-feel temperature will be lower, especially in those more maritime locations (ex. Mandeville Lakefront, Eden Isles, Bay St. Louis) with breezy afternoon winds Tuesday-Friday. Peak winds will be on Wednesday with 18 mph gusting to 30.

4) Don’t pay any attention to the little blue precipitation indications each afternoon on the Foreca graphic. You don’t get the scattered afternoon showers here in early April.

5) Next rain system coming in next Sunday with a significant cold front.

As you can see from the Foreca graph, significant cool down expected for Monday and Tuesday April 7 and 8. The good news is that this cool snap will last through at least Friday April 11 and probably into that weekend. Lows 50s, possibly some upper 40s, and highs closer to 70. Bad news for pool lovers, good news for the rest of us who want a long spring.