Much Warmer, but frosty late week

Stepping outside last night in the 15 deg. wind chill was like a flash back to my Penn State days (I loved the place except for the winter and its winds). The good news is that we’ve seen our coldest weather, and there’s a lot warmer weather in store over the next two weeks. But don’t totally uncover everything in the garden just yet. Most Northshore locations will flirt with freezing Thursday and Friday mornings. So feel free to remove the wrap from your citrus and shrubs after tonight, but anything tender that’s still alive needs to be taken in or covered for Wednesday and Thursday nights.

With the powerful storm moving out to sea from Cape Hatteras, the wind finally died down and the wind will swing around to the SW tomorrow bringing in a bit of warmth. Temperatures will rebound into the upper 60s by Tuesday, but another, weaker cold front will arrive Wednesday morning (see NWS forecast map for Tuesday evening below; green means showers). Fortunately, the low is further north and the Canadian high over Minnesota is weaker. So the cold will only be apparent during the night and early AM hours. Plus. it will be out-of-here by next weekend.

Then, we’re in for a big warmup. Next Sunday’s ECMWF model shows a big upper air ridge just to our west (color banded contours which buckle up like an upside down “U”) and the low level flow (light black contours) showing winds switch around to the south. Translation: Upper 60s for next Sunday, then 70-degree highs and sunny weather beginning a week from Monday The ridge should take its time moving through so above normal highs should persist through the following weekend, Feb. 14 and 15.

The Foreca graphic looks reasonable and the forecast looks easy. Tomorrow morning’s low will be the last one with clearly below freezing temperatures on the Northshore. With calm winds, there should be more visible frost even more developed areas. Southshore lows away from the lake should be close to freezing as well.

The warm up will seem wonderful, but clouds move in Tuesday night with showers breaking out anytime from midnight to 7 AM. Wednesday. A few tenths of an inch to a half inch will be about it. Then, the one day, two morning cool down before the upward trend resumes.

Here’s the forecast for the next six days:

Tuesday Feb. 10 Low 52 High 70

Wednesday Feb. 11 Low 56 High 73

Thursday Feb. 12 Low 59 High 74

Friday Feb. 13 Lows 59 High 73 Showers?

Saturday Feb. 14 Lows 54 Highs 68

Sunday Feb. 15 Lows 48 Highs 65

My long-range guru thinks we may yet see freezing temperatures in late February. Early spring outlook temperatures average and rainfall returning to normal from the unusually dry winter.

The scoop around St. Tammany Parish is that far too many people have had pipes burst. Also, there was still plenty of pipe wrap and heat lamps to be found at local hardware stores. So….if you find my forecasts helpful and you know of friends and neighbors who could you some better meteorological advice. Speak up! Please have scan this QR code to subscribe (woundup.carrd.co).