Need a dry day: Fri. & Sat. could be it

If you really need to get something done around the yard or with your car and need dry weather: This weekend will be your chance, especially if you live along the I-10/12 Hammond-Mandeville-Slidell-Gulfport corridor. The trend of a bit fewer storms beginning later in the day (see nearly empty 10 AM Hammond radar image below) will increase and continue through the weekend. Only a few showers in some locations tomorrow and Sunday (see discussion below) and almost none on Saturday. Amazing, but the spigot can turn off.

The reason for the pause in the daily deluge is a small upper dome of high pressure which will tend to suppress the upward motion. Of course, that means somewhat higher temperatures. Unlike recent years, where the heat dome sets in for weeks, this one will be come and gone as fast as a Southwest 737 heading to the NE. Rain chances will increase about the time the sun rises on Monday.

The Foreca graphic depicts the low shower chances on Friday and Saturday, but moves the moisture back in a bit too fast for most of us. On Friday, I expect the scatted afternoon showers to be mainly from Bush to Bogalusa & Picayune to Lyman, MS area. There could also be a few on the Southshore. On Saturday, I doubt we’ll see much. Sunday afternoon, those same inland areas could see something.

Monday looks wet with a better than 50-50 shower and thunderstorm chance from mid-morning on. Tuesday, most of us may catch a break. Then, the crystal ball gets really muddy except to say: 1) Most of us will see another shower or storm Wednesday or Thursday. 2) Next weekend, June 27-29 looks wet.

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No chance of any tropical development for the next two weeks - probably not until August. This is very typical, but even more pronounced than usual with westerly winds aloft fueled by Eastern Pacific hurricanes, therefore high wind shear, slightly lower than normal water temperatures, and Saharan Dust. The Atlantic will see some tropical storms and hurricanes this year because some of these limitations will not be a factor in certain locations in August and September.

Otherwise, there’s not much to say. Forecasting anything beyond 7-10 days this time of year is almost impossible because of small systems fueled by local influences.

Foreca graphic for Pensacola Beach tells a different story than the Slidell one. A decent chance of showers and storms Friday, a brief break of Saturday (maybe), a return of storms on Sunday (I believe it) and possibly Monday, then a drier week (I believe it), Next week looks better there than here. It’s a great week to have that Florida beach vacation before the jellyfish arrive in July. By the way, you can tell we are in summer when the highs at the beach reach 90, not much different than inland.

Also — as you probably know — scattered showers are more likely on the beach during the morning hours. It’s the inland locations that get the big ones in the afternoon.