(Too?) Early a Spring for Two Weeks

The weather is cooperating by giving me an easy forecast so I can write this quickly before the game begins. Simply put, we’re in for as nice a stretch of weather as you could hope for in the next two weeks.

With one exception, highs will reach the 70s for the next two weeks. That exception is a low pressure area that will cross Arkansas and Mississippi to our north late Saturday and next Sunday morning. As shown by this morning’s ECMWF run, this should bring a line of thunderstorms across our area around midnight. For those of you who have Saturday night parades and parties, I wouldn’t chisel the time in just yet. Some models are bringing it through closer to daybreak, which would be nice. We’ll update the timing in Tuesday’s and Thursday’s missive, as well as discuss any possibility of severe weather.

Then, after a few cooler days (highs 60s, lows 40s), it’s back to the warmth just in time for Fat Tuesday. The only concerns are fog (discussed below) and the very long-range with colder than normal weather returning during the last week of February. Normal high is 65; low is 45. Will it bring frost that damages tender vegetation - plants that were tricked (By the court jester?) into thinking that it’s all uphill from here?

The Foreca graphic looks perfect. The big concern for this week: Fog (Those are the hamburger-like symbols under the time at the top). Whenever warm air drifts over cold water this time of year, fog forms in and near the Lake, Sound, and bayous as long as the winds aren’t too high (say, 10 mph). The fog tends to form earliest, and clear out latest near these waterways — that’s another reason why high temperatures there may struggle to get above 70.

Otherwise, there’s a small chance of a piddly shower in inland areas Wednesday afternoon. Saturday night / Sunday morning’s storms could drop an inch. Sorry you revelers, my garden could use the rain.

Here’s the ECMWF forecast for Slidell’s airport for the week following the Foreca graph. I will be jumping in my athletic club’s pool for sure! There’s a chance for showers on late Wednesday or Thursday Feb. 18 & 19, but a better chance at the very end of the period Sunday Feb. 22.

The big concern is beyond this period, say from Feb. 24 to March 1 of getting one or two 35 degree mornings with frost. Models are forecasting cold air to keep building in the Yukon and upper air conditions are beginning to look favorable for bringing it south into the Great Plains after the 22nd. What’s not known is how far south it will get. Most of the cold this year has ended up going east of here. Here’s hoping that trend continues.