Nice Week, Showery Weekend

Ah….almost April when smallish thunderstorm systems bedevil forecasters with heavy rain in one part of the metro area while 30 miles away…..piddly. Or, the timing of systems is off by hours. Why? Groups of storms have self-propagation mechanisms and act differently than the large scale flow. Thank God we don’t have this problem in winter nor with established hurricanes or you could haul me out to the nut house.

A case in point may be this Saturday where the vaunted European model is forecasting several rounds of showers ending by mid afternoon with totals over an inch. BUT…The American GFS model moves some modest showers through in the early morning hours, breaks us out to a bit of sun, then bubbles up more showers by midday before clearing out. Totals might be a half inch. The American was more nearly correct with the last system, and it makes more physical sense to me this time, so call me an American.

Here’s my key points:

1) Clouds slowly increase through the week. Partly sunny on Thursday; more clouds on Friday and Satuday. Sun returns by midday Sunday.

2) This Foreca forecast is more weighted to European models, so I would end the Saturday rain a bit earlier than 7 PM, more like 3-6 PM. I wouldn’t plan a lot of outdoor activities on Saturday, since showers will be arriving before or around dawn. However, there should be some breaks around mid-day.

3) Sunday will feature clouds breaking up but there could be a few piddly showers develop in inland areas during a warm afternoon.

4) I question the heavy rain on Monday. Models are showing spotty thunderstorms moving through with a cold front - you’d have to be really lucky to get a total like that. Think totals will be less than Saturday’s.

5) In case you are wondering, the graphic is produced in Finland, so that’s why the time reads 1 AM tomorrow.

Next Tuesday through Friday, the first four days of April look warm if not downright hot and pretty humid with a day or two hitting the mid to upper 80s. But, it probably won’t last with another cold front moving through anytime from the 4th through the 7th with a a good chance of storms with the front. After that, less humid, still warm afternoons, and maybe that 10 day-two week dry spell. However, with an inch of rain yesterday, maybe another inch in two separate events this week, and another one to come, we may not be hurting too badly in the rain department.

Next post will be Friday morning.

NO, don’t do that. Water is still cold and air temperatures will stay in the upper 60s and low 70s with a lot of wind. Not a superb weekend to do much else over there as they will have the same showery issues. I’ll keep an eye on it and let you know when things are looking better.