One day break in heat comes at a price

A cold front with a broken line of thunderstorms currently stretches from the Mobile area to just north of Bogalusa to Northern Tangipahoa Parish. That front is creeping southward, so there will still be a chance of storms tonight. Even though tomorrow will be cooler and less humid behind the front on the Northshore, there will still be a good chance of storms because the dry air will be shallow. Tomorrow’s storms will break out right along the I-12/I-10 corridor from New Orleans to Mandeville, Slidell, and the MS Gulf Coast in the late morning hours and head towards the NW. Areas more than 25 miles north of the interstates should see a lower chance of rain. This image is of the Weather Service’s HRRR model for 1 PM tomorrow showing where it thinks the showers will first start (the greens, yellows, and reds). Note also

Thursday should be our sunny, delightful day with less humid air (highs 82 at the coast, 85 inland) , at least on the Northshore. Can’t dismiss a shower on the Southshore, especially downriver and near Houma. Thursday, however, will be windy (gusts to 30 over the Lake and Sound) and the tides will be kicking up to a few feet above normal because a depression will be trying to form in the Gulf about 150 miles south of the MS River. Astronomical spring tides won’t help, either. Though there will be a lot of easterly wind causing low level convergence, this Gulf system will NOT form into a tropical storm because of wind shear but you will see some spin in the clouds and hype on the TV.

Once “Thing One” ambles on by to the NW, we’ll get back in the return flow for Friday. Showers and storms will be heavy on the LA coast south of New Orleans late Friday as moisture streams in with a vengeance. That heavy rain could press into the MS Gulf Coast and parts of the Northshore early Saturday morning. My current thinking is that Sunday will feature more typical afternoon scattered showers and storms with highs in the upper 80s.

The Foreca graphic does fairly well with the following exceptions:

1. I think tomorrow’s rain will be an early-mid afternoon affair for most of us and should be over by 5 PM.

2. Saturday’s rain should be more in the morning hours unless you live in Northern Pearl River County or Washington Parish.

3. Winds look too light for Thursday. Again, would not be surprised to see gusts to 30 on the bridges and lakefront.

Expecting typical summer conditions for most of next week — a day or two without any rain and then one of those scattered afternoon storms gets you. Highs should be in the upper 80s to near 90 with a very humid feel to the air.

The big concern is that both the ambitious NWS GFS model and the conservative ECMWF are forming a tropical system in the Western Gulf sometime between Saturday June 13-15. If a system forms, it would head north to the U.S. It’s way too early to say much else, but that it bears watching. So, expect a wet period sometime during the week of the 15th followed by a dry end of June.

Foreca graphic for Pensacola Beach shows that high winds and surf are going to be really big news through Saturday. So, enjoy the swimming pool, shopping, tennis, and golf because the beach will be a sandstorm. Conditions improve next Monday.