One More Night with the Frogs?

My festive frog forecast certainly came true on the Northshore where widespread rain totals of over 5” were reported, more than I expected. Today, the atmosphere is taking a well-deserved Mother’s Day break. This visible satellite image shows lots of blue skies between yesterday’s system in the Gulf and the next system near Shreveport and Arkansas. This begs the question — will there be one more frog-loving night of heavy rainfall?

It certainly won’t be tonight, because the Northern system has been making very slow progress. However, tomorrow evening could be primed for another batch of storms. One short-range model that I love in spring-time, organized thunderstorm situations in the Made-in-America HRRR. Here’s a glimpse of it’s 6 PM forecast for tomorrow showing a line of storms cutting across Northern Harrison & Pearl River Counties plus Northern St. Tammany and Tangipahoa Parishes. The system has excellent upper air support but there won’t be as much moisture to work with as Friday night. Even still, another inch seems reasonable. My take is that this system will move through quickly from NW to SE, so we’ll all be able to sleep except for the frogs.

After that, nothing but nice, late spring-early summer pool weather through next Sunday.

The Foreca graphic probably under-does the rain tomorrow night and overplays the chances on Thursday, which I crossed out. The ECMWF and the Foreca forecast has all of the rain ending by 7 PM tomorrow — that could be optimistic but I think it will all be over by 9 or 10 PM for everyone. Southshore should see less rain than the North — just like yesterday.

Notice that the 50s are gone from the forecast, the incoming Canadian air mass is taking too long to get here and is being modified too much. Even still, 64 for a low speaks of modest humidity through Friday before an increase for the weekend. Next Monday’s rainfall is of the isolated, afternoon variety — it probably won’t happen.

The section I dread. Large uncertainty for Tuesday May 19 - Saturday May 23. American GFS keeps it hot, humid, and dry with a Bermuda High close to Florida blocking systems coming in from the West. The European model and its AI model bring a front close enough to us that some of those evenings could see lines of storms moving in from the NW. Again, it’s hard to buck the European since the consensus of models agree with it. All agree highs mid 80s, lows near 70.

Basically….the same as here in LA and MS. Sunny weather through next Sunday after possible storms tomorrow night. Highs near 80 to low 80s, lows in the low 70s. Winds dying down to more reasonable levels, except for a nice afternoon sea breeze late in the week. Starting to get lovely there….