Pleasant Weather Week

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I’m not sure I’d call it delightful, but for late August, I’ll take it. With upper air winds from the NW and low level winds from the NE, more pleasant air will be drifting down from the rest of the U.S. into the normally steamy Gulf South by late Tuesday. Call it a brief taste of what Chicago calls a bearably hot summer day with highs near 90, but lower humidity and morning lows quite pleasant. How pleasant? See “At-A-Glance”.

In the tropics, all quiet on the Eastern Front. Erin is out of the picture, Fernand is east of Bermuda and heading out to sea, and a wave with thunderstorms approaching the Leeward/Windward chain looks interesting, but won’t ultimately amount to much. Expect a long, two-week lull before things pick up.

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The Foreca graphic has the right idea with rainfall and high temperatures, but the low temps. are a few degrees warmer than I think for mid-week. That’s probably because the ECMWF and its models that Foreca favors are suffering from a warm bias this summer. With lower humidity from Tuesday through Friday, there will be a larger north-south temperature difference than usual.

For Monday and Tuesday, don’t expect much difference from what we’ve experienced. Sunny. Highs low-mid 90s and lows just a degree or two cooler, near 70. There’s a 20% chance of a light shower Tuesday evening .

For Wednesday and Thursday, you should notice a change. Sunny. Highs near 90, maybe 92 in inland locations like Folsom and Bogalusa. Morning lows upper 60s for many of us near the I-10/I-12 corridor; mid 60s well inland. Nice.

Friday and Saturday. A few clouds creep in with a shower chance. Highs might not hit 90. Morning lows come up to near 70 and humidity increases a bit, especially on Saturday. Then, we stay in that 70-90 range.

I know that most of us received an inch or two of rain Thursday-Saturday, but we might have to consider watering at least pots and newly planted shrubs by late week.

The visible satellite image below shows an impressive wave approaching the islands, but looks are deceiving. Though animation shows favorable outflow aloft, and there appears to be swirl, hurricane hunters can’t find a low level circulation. Though NHC might label this as a depression if a low level circulation becomes apparent, it will encounter too much wind shear by the time it gets north of the ABC islands. But you could still send me on an all-expense paid vacation there to investigate…

The long-range European model continues to show much below normal chances of tropical development for the next two weeks. After that, their “Week Three” map shows that we should looks for systems along the track that Erin and Fernand ran. However, there will still be a lot of time left in the hurricane season for something to form in the Western Caribbean or SE Gulf. I’m not saying it’s going to happen, but I will tell you why I’m concerned.

Much warmer than normal sea surface temperatures in the Eastern Gulf: If an old front, an easterly wave with some upper level support got in there, va voom! One interesting side note: You can see the colder temperatures left in the wake of Erin.

Foreca graphic for Pensacola Beach shows some lovely weather through early Friday with some storms this weekend. Also, the wind will pick up in fits and spurts, so if you are at the beach watch for the flags.