Pop-up Showers Defy Forecasting

I get it: You come here expecting a quality forecast dripping with insights. But there’s a few times a year when not much can be said. Today is one of those days.

When the weather is driven by local effects, you get virtually unpredictable pop-up, daytime showers and storms. They form first where maybe the Lake or Sound water is a bit warmer than a patch nearby or maybe the wind converges near a point in the Lake or even a few dozen extra trucks keep their engines running at the truck stop. It’s a bit like throwing popcorn up in the air and trying to predict where the kernels fall - only it’s not this much fun.

Seriously, tomorrow and Saturday will feature a few pop-up showers tending to break out near the Lake or Sound in the Mandeville - Slidell - Biloxi areas early in the day before raining themselves out, then others developing inland and on the Southshore during the afternoon hours. 30% chance tomorrow, 20% Saturday with Southshore and inland locations seeing a bit better coverage - the MS Gulf Coast even less. Most people will get piddly amounts, but a few lucky ones will get a half-inch or more.

The graphic shows a chance of these showers each day with the greatest chances on Monday or Tuesday. That coincides with the slug of mid-level tropical moisture that I talked about in the last letter. However, chances have gone down a bit -- so it won’t be much more than 50-50. After that, we dry out and warm back up. In short, I’d keep watering.

Nothing new in the tropical Atlantic which is quiet. I see no threat of a tropical storm or hurricane in the Gulf this month. There’s only a few places where one could develop, such as off the Carolinas before heading out to sea, or maybe just off Africa in a few weeks.

Models have trended drier and warmer for us from the middle of next week, say the period August 13-22. After that, rainfall and normal temperatures increase for the end of the month and early September. We really need some rain, and I hope we get a few inches in late August.

Foreca graphic for Pensacola Beach shows a really nice stretch through this weekend with temperatures mostly in the 80s, sunny skies and light winds. What’s shown after Monday and Tuesday are isolated showers with light amounts. .