Really Hot Weekend, But...

Oh, my! 100 degree highs are possible for many Northshore residents either on Saturday or Sunday. After the remains of a weak front pass us late tomorrow, sinking air will add just enough compression-al heating to add a few more degrees of misery to our brutal heat wave.

That weak front (more like a zone of convergence at 5,000 feet, but say that fast five times) is giving scattered storms to Washington Parish and most of Coastal Mississippi north of I-10, but the storms die off as they meet move southward. Some models are forecasting that will not happen tomorrow and that the storms will reach the Lake, Sound, and Southshore. Most likely time for the storms near I-10 & I-12 anytime from 5 to 10 PM tomorrow. On the Southshore, that time could stretch to midnight. I’d rate the chance of rain at 60%.

After a brutally hot weekend, the chance of storms returns for Monday and Tuesday. The Mississippi Gulf Coast looks a little more likely to see the storms (40% chance) than Southeast Louisiana (20%). Not expecting a lot of rain either day.

The Foreca graphic overdoes rain on Saturday and Sunday which I think will be bone dry. Notice the uptick in rain for late Wednesday and Thursday of next week. Another leftover front will be heading in our direction. Though its too early to say for certain, some models are bullish on giving us an inch or two of rain with some ever-so-slightly cooler weather for the weekend of the 28th. I’m talking highs more like 90-92 with lows in the low 70s on the Northshore. It’s not much, but it would be a start.

The Tropical Atlantic looks favorable for a storm because the Saharan Dust has cleared. The next one could form just off Africa next Tuesday, or the system could track as a wave or depression for a few days and form in the mid-Atlantic. This could track in the general direction of the Virgin Islands or Puerto Rico by August 30. This should not be a threat to the U.S. because of the strong westerly winds aloft and the general position of the “Bermuda High” which will pull storms northward and out to sea before they threaten Florida. Long-range European modeling still shows nothing in the Gulf in the next month. .

For us, the heat wave looks to build back in after the first few days of September. My guess is that it will hold for another 10 days to two weeks and break for a few days during the third week of September.

Next Tuesday - Friday looks wet, but at least the temperatures will hang in the 80s.