Scattered Showers Monday & Tuesday

This late afternoon visible satellite image shows perfectly clear skies over us, but a band of showers across Alabama that is heading in our direction. So shower and storm chances increase for tomorrow afternoon with the highest chances over the Northshore and Coastal Mississippi.. Some of them could linger into the overnight hours on Tuesday. Tuesday’s shower chances will be lower. Unfortunately, the showers won’t do anything to relieve the heat.

The next feature to arrive will be a weak cold front, pictured on this Wednesday forecast map as cutting through central Louisiana. It won’t arrive until Thursday, so Wednesday will be mid-90s hot in many locations. Thursday might be a degree cooler, but noticeably nicer weather should arrive for Friday and Saturday with highs 86-88 and morning lows upper 60s on the Northshore.

The Foreca graphic really overdoes the rainfall which should be confined to tomorrow and Tuesday. . After that, the next chance of rain should hold off until a week from Tuesday. Monday afternoon’s rain chances are about 60% on the Northshore, 30% South. Tuesday’s - about 30%. Typical rainfall amounts should range from a few tenths of an inch to a half-inch.

Models are showing a genuine cold front moving through, but disagree on the timing. Some pick Wednesday Sept. 30, others hold off until Oct. 3. Temperatures could drop to highs low 80s, lows low 60s. With the front - a line of storms. It’s that time of year, so all I can say is it seems plausible and we’ll keep you informed.

Yes, there could be a tropical depression near the Yucatan in about week, but with strong westerly winds now forecast and virtually certain to be over the Gulf — it’s not going to develop.

I actually had a few people ask me about what winter would be. Many of you aren’t really interested in whether it will be below or above normal temperatures or rainfall — you want to know about the Christmas season and whether we’ll see snow this winter. That’s too much to ask, but I’m starting to digest what several long-range gurus are already predicting and I’ll give you my winter outlook sometime in October.

Foreca graphic for Pensacola Beach shows the temperature trend is clearly downward. In fact, they are more to see highs in the low 80s next week than we are here in Louisiana and South Mississippi. To my mind, that’s still fantastic beach weather. Again, precipitation is overdone after Tuesday.