Scattered showers then a drier weekend?

It’s that time of year where uncertainty abounds concerning daily shower chances. Wednesday and Thursday certainly feature decent rain chances, but still at or below 50% coverage. Then, I think the chances are less than the official NWS forecast until late Sunday when another system arrives from the north. Next week should feature chances for most of the week.

The Foreca graphic looks good to me with temps holding in the 80s for the next two days with rain chances anywhere from 30-50%. Saturday, I think the showers will be confined to a few places on the Southshore. So highs will reach the 90s. Next system arrives Sunday night, at the earliest on the Northshore. Next week features a chance of afternoon or evening storms through Wednesday. Then, rain chances might back off for a few days.

Expect some deeper tropical moisture to arrive at the end of next week or mid June. That should bring in daily rain chances. GFS continues to spin up tropical development in the long range, but I need to see consenus with other models and more internal consistency for me to believe it. Beginning to think that my call of an early season storm is a bust. I’m a better forecaster in the 2-8 day range than beyond, but so is just about everyone.

Graphic for Pensacola Beach shows a really nice spell of weather through the weekend than even more of a shower threat than Louisiana/Mississippi for next week.