Several wet periods through Sunday

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If bullfrogs or spring peepers could read weather maps, they’d be warming up their vocal cords. I count at least six opportunities for showers and storms through Sunday evening courtesy of a stalled east-west front and small upper air waves that will kick off the showers as they pass by.

Yes, this morning’s opportunity to rain fizzled out and the rest of the evening should be cloudy and fairly pleasant north of that weak front. But… tomorrow morning showers and thunderstorms should break out, especially on the Northshore, as the front tries to advance northward under some favorable upper air conditions. Showers and storms could come in several batches throughout the day. The E-W front might press ever so slightly north of I-10/I-12 during the evening hours shutting off the rain for those of us within 10 miles of the interstates or on the Southshore. This is shown in the NWS forecast map for tomorrow evening.

On Saturday, models sag the front back south again and an upper air disturbance brings,, you guessed it, several more batches of showers and storms, probably one in the morning and another in the evening. The Southshore will get in on the action, too. Then, on Sunday, rinse and repeat courtesy of another upper air wave passing by in the morning (sorry Mom)

and a cold front from the NW that will make it through in the evening hours (but gives us more showers and storms when it passes). And, oh yes, Monday and Tuesday will be beautiful.

The Foreca graphic spreads out the rainfall like I smear a thin coating of nut butter on my Exekiel bread. There’s a lot of uncertainty as to which one of these shower chances will really produce, so this is the way it handles uncertainty (I’d rather smear nut butter). My guess is that you’ll see maybe four of these six give rainfall with two of them giving you a half inch or more. Everyone should get close to an inch from all this, and a few of you lucky frogs could get two or more inches. Frog heaven is more likely in inland locations and I wouldn’t be shocked if the NWS issued a flash flood warning for a small part of the Northshore sometime this weekend. Why this strange conversation and uncertainty? Models can’t handle these really small systems all that well.

Notice how beautiful it gets Monday through Wednesday with highs in the low to mid 80s, low humidity, and overnight lows in the 50s. Then, the humidity increases a bit, but still not bad through Friday.

After this Sunday, expect a pattern shift. I see almost no chance of rain for the next 10 days, maybe two weeks. Lots of partly sunny, late spring-early summer weather with highs mid-upper 80s and lows near 70. A week from now will be the perfect time to heat the pool. Just don’t tell the frogs.

My thoughts on hurricane season haven’t changed. Bob Breck agrees in arguing for a below normal season in the Atlantic, with maybe only 9 named storms. He showed one graphic that you might find interesting. Despite the ballyhoo that global warming has increased the hurricane threat, the number of land-falling hurricanes in Louisiana has not increased through the years. That’s also true for the US as whole. Also of interest is that if you go back in history, no Louisiana hurricane has ever tracked where it could put water into houses at 15 feet elevation in St. Tammany Parish. Keep that in mind as you pay your insurance bill.