Showers likely through Saturday

The National Weather Service forecast discussion in effect reads “showers until further notice”. I agree through Saturday, but some of the models show improvement in some areas by Sunday — and all of them do by the middle of next week. At least the clouds and showers will keep the high temperatures down. The reason for the rain - tropical moisture plus a dying front in the area to provide the convergence and lift. Let me explain in the forecast discussion .

The Foreca graphic gives the right idea through Saturday. A better than 50-50 rain chance will prevail with quite a number of places receiving a quarter or a half inch of rain — a few will receive over an inch. Because the showers could start early, highs will stop in the upper 80s. I see no appreciable difference across the entire region. The most likely time for showers and storms would be in the afternoon hours.

Then, fingers crossed, the European suite of models shows some improvement on Sunday in most areas. Rain chances and amounts go down — the dying front is long gone and the moisture streaking in from the Gulf looks to move ever so slightly to the west. Still can’t totally rule out showers, but it would most likely be in the afternoon with chances at 30% or less.

About the only area that should see 50-50 rain chances or higher on Sunday and early next week would be the Southshore. The seabreeze from the Gulf, not the Lake, might be all that is needed to give them showers.

All the models drop the rain chances to isolated by the middle of next week.

Expect a few days of drier weather towards the end of next week. After that, your guess is as good as mine. I still think we’re in for an average summer in terms of temperature and rainfall.

Tropics are quiet and will remain so for two weeks. Though you can never rule out a fish storm in July, I wouldn’t be surprised if the U.S. is not threatened until the second week of August at the earliest. So, use this time to do some pre-season prep. Photograph your home’s contents if you haven’t done so in the last five years and think about where you might want to evacuate if you had to (No, I’m not fatalistic).

Other than the temperatures which stay in the low to mid 80s, the Foreca graphic for Pensacola Beach shows a pretty poor stretch of beach weather. Lots of clouds and a chance of thunderstorms almost every day. In fact,several showers and storms went through the area today with sunny breaks in between. I don’t see tomorrow or Thursday would be any different. Not a total wash out, Next week will be better.