Showers on Sunday; waiting for Jerry

A NW-SE band of moisture offshore will first produce showers on the Southshore on Saturday, then a tropical wave will kick some of those showers inland on the Northshore and South Mississippi Sunday and Monday. Amounts and timing will vary, so look at the Forecast Discussion for details.

Then, in the tropics, there’s a lull in the action for the next few days as meteorologists wait to see where the next one, Jerry, will develop. A strong, late season wave is coming off Africa, and I’ll admit I was wrong. This has a chance to develop as it gets into the Main Development Region (MDR) between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Antilles. Read Long Range Ramblings for my thoughts on this.

Denise and I have a wild and crazy weekend planned…meeting old friends…doing some fun things. Bottom line: I may not be able to write one this Sunday.

The Foreca graphic overdoes the days with rainfall next week. Otherwise, it looks good. After a few Southshore showers and one near Gulfport today, shower chances go away tomorrow unless you’re heading offshore. With a wind of 10-15 mph and gusts to 20, we’ll take a partly sunny Friday with 85 degree highs anytime.

Saturday will feature a few more clouds and a good chance of showers on the Southshore. However, the showers will act like commuters stuck at work with accidents on the Twin Spans and Causeway as they struggle to head north. Eventually, they will make it into the Mandeville-Slidell-Gulfport area by evening. Sunday’s showers, and maybe a clap of thunder, will find similar challenges making it from these areas north and west into places like Hammond and Bogalusa. The result: Big differences in rainfall. Places on the Southshore, especially St. Bernard, may see an inch and a half. Gulfport-Biloxi, perhaps an inch. Slidell-Mandeville maybe a half inch. Elsewhere to the north and west, maybe just a few tenths. Not exactly a drought buster…

Monday should see more sun, but with scattered mainly afternoon showers. Showers should move north and develop during the afternoon giving higher totals to inland areas. However, totals should range from only a few hundredths to a few tenths. Skies should break out in time for the big ‘Cruisin the Coast classic car parade in Long Beach, MS Monday evening.

There may be a few isolated showers Tuesday, but probably none after that as temperatures rebound into the upper 80s to near 90. Starting next Friday and extending into the weekend, expect another cool down as we catch just the bottom end of a cold front that will come through without any rain. This means highs mid 80s and lows 60-64 Oct. 10-12.

This is the NHC tropical outlook. The system east of Florida is part of that line of showers extending up into the Gulf just offshore from us. However, this will not develop into anything because of wind shear. The system coming off Africa could be our Jerry. The wave has many thunderstorms in Africa and a large area of the MDR will have low wind shear next week. Both the ECMWF and GFS models develop it and it will approach the islands, perhaps as a tropical storm next Thursday. NHC only gives it a 20% chance of development, but I’d rate it higher.

The reason why I still have a sliver of a concern for a hurricane in the Gulf— if this develops and stays south ending up in the Western Caribbean about two weeks from now, odds favor a powerful storm. That’s a lot of if’s, so I’ll look at it next week.

Foreca graphic for Pensacola Beach shows a cloudy, windy weekend with a good chance of showers Sunday and Monday, with sun and less wind by Tuesday.