Showers will tease until Wednesday

Before I begin…expect erratic posting times for the next few weeks.

Isolated showers may tease a few places in SE Louisiana and Coastal Mississippi over the Memorial Day weekend, but they are hardly worth mentioning. I expect the main events to begin Tuesday Night or Wednesday morning and continue through Friday when the best lift will be added to the tropical moisture courtesy of an approaching cold front and upper trough.

Long range is a bit more puzzling. Will the cold front clear our area late next Friday or Saturday, lowering humidity for a few days and clearing us out? The European was giving clear signs of that until the latest run where it delays the front and weakens its effect — after all it is getting to be June.

As you can tell, I think the Foreca graphic overdoes the days with rainfall and underestimates the highs. Friday’s isolated shower chances are probably confined to the River Parishes. Saturday’s are more widespread, but still not certain and will probably occur late in the evening, about sunset. Monday’s and Tuesday’s will be isolated afternoon and mainly Northshore.

The main events begin Tuesday night into Wednesday — but don’t end until Friday at the earliest. An approaching cold front will create broken lines of showers and thunderstorms that will march in our direction from Arkansas and Central Mississippi. They run ahead of the front and eventually peter out the further they run ahead of the front — a bit like troops that can’t be supported by supply lines.

When fronts move slowly at this time of the year, you get several of these broken lines come through before the front finally clears the area. Hence, we can expect several bands of showers and storms over a few day period.

After Friday, my guess (fingers crossed) is that we will see a few day break with slightly cooler AM lows and lower humidity before summer heat and humidity will return.

The long-range European model continues to show above normal deep tropical moisture in the Western Caribbean from June 5-7 and then lower than normal sea level pressures. Again, there could well be something in the Caribbean that makes its way to the NW into the Gulf.

Don’t expect clarity on this in the next five days. If this were to happen, I’d expect other models to pick up the song about 7-10 days from now. Then, it’s pretty much a waiting game to see exactly where and when something would form.

These early seasons storms in the Western Caribbean and Gulf are outliers and anomalies. Translation: I’m expecting a lull until maybe August and that this is not a signal of more to come in the same area.

Foreca graphic for Pensacola Beach is more believable than the one for Slidell. They have a chance of an AM shower or thunderstorm on Sunday, but mainly the Alabama and Pensacola area rather than Destin. Otherwise fine beach weather Friday and Saturday and then Sunday afternoon and Monday. Main event happens on Wednesday - Friday as well.