Showery Wednesday

The heat is on for the next few days, but not much warmer than normal. At 3 PM, we’re 94 in Slidell with a feels-like temperature of 104 - that’s a degree or two warmer than normal. I can see Tuesday being the worst day with a 96, but even still that’s better than the 104 degree readings I’m expecting in New York for the July 4 weekend.

As the heat builds northward mid-week, the upper air ridge will move towards the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic causing a weakness to the south over the Gulf Coast. An inverted trough aloft or upside down U will move from east to west across the Gulf Coast passing us on Wednesday. That’s the reason for the showery Wednesday. But, recent model runs show the ridge not quite as far north as earlier and the “U” just brushing the Gulf Coast (see ECMWF map below for Wed. AM), so I’m not expecting as much rain on the Northshore as I did a few days ago.

The Foreca graphic correctly backs off on the Tuesday thunderstorm chances, though they are still possible in the Gulfport-Biloxi area after dark. Most of us will see a shower or thunderstorm on Wednesday. They seem most likely in the morning or mid-day hours. For Thursday - Saturday, we’re into typical mid-summer with scattered mostly afternoon showers and storms (30% chance) on the Northshore. Rain chances and amounts will be higher on the Southshore, especially downriver and towards Houma. Shower chances seem to go up a bit for the Northshore July 6 and 7 and highs will probably stop in the upper 80s.

In the tropics, one glance at the visible satellite image tells you why this season will be a dud in the main development region from Africa through the Caribbean. All of the shower activity is in the Eastern Pacific south of Mexico where the water is toasty as opposed to the Caribbean where there is too much wind shear. By the way….Too many of us are locked into an agonizing drive over to the Panhandle when a flight to the Caribbean for a week will give us a less crowded vacation and could be less expensive. This is a great year to do it.

Long-range weather outlook here is still about the same - a normal or slightly wetter than normal first half of July followed by a dry late July. Temperatures will be about normal. This week’s extreme heat in the Northeast will retreat and be centered over North Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Western Missouri, and NW Arkansas for most of July. For more reasonable summer temperatures, Eastern Tennessee and the Southern Appalachians make a lot of sense this year.

In the tropics, there is a slight (20%) chance of development near Bermuda late Tuesday or Wednesday. If anything develops, it will head due west towards the Carolinas and will have a hard time becoming more than a weak tropical storm. There is no chance it could effect us along the Gulf. This is the type of far-north development that could happen this year.

Foreca graphic for Pensacola Beach shows a similar Wednesday shower threat - but it could begin there Tuesday evening. Then, Thursday afternoon and Friday look dry before scattered afternoon showers and storms increase, especially on Sunday and Monday. Highs in the low 90s will temper towards the mid 80s, a few degrees cooler than Louisiana/Mississippi especially if you throw in that delightful sea breeze.