Some showers, but only minor relief

Oh so close. Scattered showers stretch across Central Mississippi into the Mobile area and the individual cells are moving from the NNW to the SSE. A few of them will probably come down as far south as the I-10/12 corridor shortly before sunset - then they’ll probably start dying out. See the radar image from 3:30 PM below. The showers are ahead of a trough - or that non-cold, "cold front” highlighted in blue on the satellite image.

The system just didn’t move quite as far south as I hoped. These scattered showers and storms will redevelop tomorrow (Friday), but less than half of us will see any rain and high temperatures may be knocked down only a degree or two. Saturday looks pretty much shower free before the early Sunday morning system arrives which I discussed in the last newsletter. That one has more upper air support, so almost all of us will see a shower or thunderstorm after midnight and before 8 AM Sunday — including the Southshore. The only places where showers or storms could linger into mid-day Sunday would be the Gulfport-Biloxi area or downriver from New Orleans.

The graphic overdoes the rainfall, so follow along. Friday’s showers and storms will be widely scattered, 30% chance and light amounts. Anything Saturday would be in the evening hours and not much. Early Sunday morning’s storms will be the main event — but still not a soaker — Probably a few tenths of an inch to a half inch. For Monday through early Thursday, sorry Foreca, but rain chances are slim to none according to the models I use. That means highs back into the mid 90s. Next chance of showers and storms after Sunday appears to be late Thursday for Friday.

Of course the big disappointment is the temperatures. Sunday may be the only day that we could stay in the 80s, and that’s a big if. Don’t you wish you were up in Tennessee where Nashville at noon was in the low 80s with low humidity and the Smokies and foothills were in the mid-upper 70s?

As to when it’s going to get cooler….we aren’t even in August yet! We usually eke out 1-3 days of acceptably nice weather on the Northshore in September (highs in the 80s with lower humidity) but that’s the only hope I can give.

The European is forecasting a showery period from next Friday Aug. 7 - Tuesday Aug. 11. That would be nice since it will keep temperatures down. After that, it’s dry, dry, dry.

As expected, the tropical Atlantic is quiet while the Pacific is cranking out swirls. There’s a lot of Saharan dust inhibiting activity in the Eastern Atlantic. That’s normal and should diminish in about two weeks. What’s unusual is the strong shear because of the El Nino. Bottom line: Nothing expected for at least the next week, probably 10 days, and below normal activity for the season.

Foreca graphic for Pensacola Beach shows more shower activity than here through the weekend which makes sense given what we see in satellite imagery. After that, next week looks nice, especially since many of the families will be back home for the new school year..