Storms early Tuesday;otherwise typical

Posting early because of an afternoon pool party. Chance of showers seems lower than yesterday’s surpise based on a dry 3,000-10,000 ft layer in the sounding this morning in Slidell. Still, it’s summer, and can’t rule out the widely scattered 20% chance of afternoon storms, especially where the sea breeze runs out of steam just north of I-12/I-10. That pattern will hold for Monday as well.

Upper level flow has switched around to the Southeast courtesy of a Bermuda High that has built into the Carolinas. A classic easterly wave in the Gulf will increase our shower chances for early Tuesday, then shower chances should go back to below normal with small amounts for Wednesday. The graphic below shows the 4 AM Tuesday forecast from the European model with my annotations of the wave. Otherwise, a typical summer pattern with temperatures a degree or so above normal and 30% shower chances. Nothing in the tropics, nor will there be for at least several weeks.

The Foreca graphic shows the Tuesday rainfall event. The larger precipitation bar at 1 PM means a 6-hour total ending at 1 PM, so I suspect that the rainfall for most of us will be a few hours earlier than that. Lower cloud cover and precipitation chances on Wednesday mean a hotter day — mid 90s. Otherwise, very typical summer with 20-30% chance of afternoon storms with amounts of a few hundredths to a few tenths of an inch. This is an improvement over last week.

I don’t see anything remarkable for the first week or two of July with highs maybe a degree above normal (93 vs 92) but with warmer morning lows, mid-upper 70s. Rainfall — about average.

In the tropics, things are dead, which is not unusual. However, the pattern of sea surface temperatures, the increase of Eastern Pacific storms (expect another one this week) providing Atlantic shear, and the position of the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone all point to lowering storm totals into the average range. Landfall seems more likely on the Atlantic than the Gulf — and in the Gulf, more likely in Florida than Texas.

Keep in mind: All it takes is one. It’s like going to a baseball game with a great sinker ball pitcher. The opposing team strikes out often, and most of what’s hit are ground outs. However, you can’t turn your back on the game because when you do you and your hot dog could get beamed by one of the few foul balls in the game.

Foreca graphic for Pensacola Beach shows the wave moving through on Tuesday rather than Wednesday. This makes sense because they move from east to west. Otherwise, a nice stretch of weather from Wednesday through Saturday.