Storms likely Sun. Aft. until Tuesday

This weather reminds me of my first townhouse that I bought in the DC area as a single. A hip inner city couple previously owned it and the bathroom featured shower curtains that proclaimed “Wet, wet, wet” and when you turned around the towels exclaimed “Dry, dry, dry” using bold wavy patterns (The sheets similarly screamed out “Sleep”). I wanted so badly to photograph it, but cell phones didn’t exist.

Our “wet, wet, wet” is coming late Sunday courtesy of an increase in tropical moisture that will blow in from the SW. I know the atmosphere already seems moist to you, but it’s the moisture at 6-12,000 feet that counts in determining how much rain we’ll get. Also, a weak boundary (left over front) will be just to our north helping to squeeze the moist air upward and serving as a starting point for storms that will move south. This is illustrated in this NWS graphic which loosely depicts these features on Monday.

The moisture and rain chances should peak on Monday and Tuesday where storms could break out any ‘ole time of the day with widespread cloudiness holding the temperatures down into the mid-80s! Though I doubt this will be one of those epic, 10-plus inchers, it’s possible a few unlucky folks could get 4 or 5” out of this with most of us seeing an inch or two. Wednesday will see more typical summer afternoon storms.

Then, the pattern totally flips. This weekend’s Western Heat Dome will move southeast and the spigot will turn off. Expect little to no rain and 90s for highs starting next Thursday and lasting for a week. Dry, dry, dry.

The Foreca graphic shows typical summertime afternoon storms for Friday and Saturday with highs well into the 90s. Rain chances are about 30%. Then, Sunday afternoon will see a better chance of storms (60%) before the Monday and Tuesday’s downpours. Wednesday is a transition day back into more sun with scattered storms before the dry weather hits next Thursday.

Colorado State, which produced the first seasonal hurricane outlooks way back in the early 80s, just revised their 2026 outlook downward. In April, they were expecting 14 named storms, now it’s down to 9 with only 4 hurricanes and 1 major hurricane. That’s almost exactly what my guru with a Penn State degree stated six weeks ago. Again, I think most of them will be North of the Bahamas, east of the Carolinas, near Bermuda, or out near the Azores.

Foreca graphic for Pensacola Beach shows a really nice Friday and Saturday before a wet spell from Sunday through Wednesday. If you go….Bring a good book, go shopping, or catch a good movie like we did — “Young Washington” was great.