Storms return Friday

Beautiful day today in the wake of yesterday’s big storms. One quick look at the radar out of Lake Charles (shown below) tells you that a solid east-west band of storms are in the Gulf and they are creeping in our direction. The heart of tomorrow’s system should be further south than the last one, which is why the Southshore should get a longer rain and heavier amounts than the North. After it moves through tomorrow evening, rather than clear up, an unusual upper low will stay parked in our area making for a mix of clouds and sun, cooler temperatures, and a 50-50 chance of showers and maybe a few thunderstorms over the weekend with mainly light amounts. Not an all day wash out, more like a 10 minute shower. One possible concern; If any strong thunderstorms were able to get going in the afternoon hours, hail is possible because the freezing level is closer to the ground than usual.

1) Foreca graphic clearly identifies tomorrow as the main rainfall event. Showers and storms could start anytime from 5 to 8 AM (from SW to NE) with the heaviest storms hitting in the late morning hours, mainly Southshore. The system should move through by late afternoon.

2) Weekend and Monday should feature a mix of clouds and sun, and a 50-50 chance of seeing a brief shower, maybe even a thunderstorm. On Sunday and Monday, the area with the somewhat better chance of showers is South Mississippi north of I-10.

3) Don’t be surprised to hear of one storm dumping hail somewhere during Saturday or Sunday afternoon. Not very common here, but this is the pattern for it. Radars are pretty good at picking this up, so cell phones will go off if this happens.

4) Note the trend towards warmer and sunny weather beginning on Tuesday. Highs getting back in the upper 80s by mid week.

Expect high temperatures May 15-20 to reach the upper 80s with a few stray 90 degree readings in inland areas. Not quite as humid as mid summer, but a reminder that June is coming soon. That period will be largely rain free.

My guru says that conditions still look favorable for late May or early June tropical development in the Western Caribbean. After that, the Caribbean should quiet down and see below normal activity this year.

If you missed it , go back into your email for my hurricane outlook that I mailed on Monday. It’s also out as a feature post on my web site wounduponweather.com

Foreca graphic for Pensacola Beach shows a wet Friday and Saturday and then a windy late Sunday - Tuesday. Not beach weather with rip currents expected through Tuesday. Temperatures gradually warm to low 80s by mid-week. Next weekend could be a great one.