Stormy Sat. & Geeky Hurricane Insights

Interested in pre-season insights into hurricane season? Who isn’t? I ran into some genuinely believable insights from the meteorologists at Nutrien Ag Solutions that I share under “Long Range Ramblings”. Warning: It’s a bit geeky, but nothing you can’t handle given Prof. Gilhousen’s lucid logic.

Back to more immediate weather. Chances are improving for thunderstorms Saturday morning. Storms will kick off tomorrow morning way up where Walmart is run in NW Arkansas; models then march them towards the I-20 corridor from Monroe to Jackson by tomorrow evening. An excellent NWS mesoscale model, which handles organized thunderstorms better than my beloved European, is moving them all the way to the MS Gulf Coast by 10 AM Saturday where they pack a punch. The European model kills them north of here, but redevelops them quickly about noon centered along I-12/I-10. Either way, prospects for a special Walmart delivery of storms is looking good.

However, the storms are moving way ahead of the front which will never make it here. So, a preview of early summer starts on Sunday and extends through the week. Upper 80s will prevail as highs for most of us, but low 90s will hit inland. It will be humid, but not nearly as bad as mid-summer. At least nighttime lows will be in the upper 60s.

The Foreca graphic’s temperature forecast is looking better than usual, but it under plays the precipitation on Saturday. I see a chance for some late showers towards evening tomorrow, mainly in inland areas of the Northshore. The main event won’t arrive until the wee hours of Saturday morning in inland areas, more like 9 AM - Noon for most of us on the Northshore & MS Gulf Coast. Tack on another hour or two for the Southshore . Probabilities are over the 50% that the NWS is advertising for the Northshore and probably about that for the South. Amounts will be quite variable. Some could get an inch, most a half inch on the Northshore. Showers should be over by evening.

Sunday will have some scattered showers, not heavy, and they will happen late in the afternoon. Then I’m not expecting anything until Friday evening ahead of a cold front.

After next Friday’s cold front, expect three beautiful days featuring lower humidity and temperatures. Highs from Sat. May 2 - Monday May 5 will be in the upper 70s. Lows mid-upper 50s on theNorthshore Saturday & Monday. Sunday morning lows could be close to 50 in some Northshore locations. Lows staying in the 60s South. Then, we’re back to 80 degree weather starting Tuesday May 6 for a few warm days with several shower chances that week. Then, maybe another cold front for the following weekend? That could be our last.

Now…HURRICANE SEASON INSIGHTS. Chances look low for a hurricane strike near us during the heart of the season. The explanation lies with a developing Super El Nino, its location, and the weather pattern that history tells us should happen.

What is a Super El Nino? That’s when much warmer than normal sea surface temperatures move into the Eastern Pacific. You can see that in this cross section of contoured temperatures across the Pacific. Asia is on the left and South America is on the right. Going down the chart is depth. It shows a ton of red warm water at 100 meters below the surface in the Central Pacific. The wind is moving this water east and it will rise along the thermocline in the direction of the green arrow. Bottom line: In a few months, there will more warm water in the Eastern Pacific than the Central Pacific.

The meteorologists at Nutrien Ag found prior years that featured strong El Ninos that met this criteria and contoured the rainfall for July-September. That’s shown in this next graphic where browns mean below normal rainfall. You can see that Caribbean is dry, as expected, where almost no tropical storms are expected. But the dry tongue extends through most of the Gulf into Louisiana (circled area). This implies: 1) Lower than normal tropical activity in the Gulf & 2) A high pressure area will sit over the Gulf Coast blocking storms from coming in from the North and South. The favored area for tropical development will be just of Florida, in and north of the Bahamas.

IF THIS IS CORRECT (and the European long-range model agrees)…Expect a hot, somewhat dry summer (July-Sept) for us that could be hurricane free. June is transitional and might not be that dry. A Gulf-grown, weak tropical system might be a godsend for needed rainfall in June if it happens. But, this is meteorology and, like the NY Mets who find weird ways to lose, I’ve seen crazy pattern break downs for just five days all summer, exactly when a storm comes along. That was the case in 1992 with Andrew. Let’s hope meteorology is predictably boring this summer compared to the Mets.

By the way, in case you are wondering how they found out about the temperatures in the Pacific, the answer is buoy data. I used to work for the National Data Buoy Center at Stennis and we ran a network of moored buoys across the Tropical Pacific that exist to this day.

Foreca graphic for Pensacola Beach shows highs near 80 with breezy conditions. Like Louisiana, the only chance of showers is Saturday and late next Friday evening. As always, tack on a few degrees for downtown areas away from the beach. Nice weather to hang around the pool, walk the beach, take in the sights but a bit to early and rough for Gulf swimming.