Tuesday March 11

Everyone’s asking about the severe weather threat this Saturday. Label me as unimpressed with the chances within 40 miles of the Lake or Sound, but very much impressed the further north you go into Mississippi and Alabama. Global models paint a picture where there’s moisture as far north as Southern Illinois and Nashville, but the upper level energy and divergence is mostly further north from the Gulf Coast.

The prudent approach is a wait to Thursday and early Friday to see. Why? The upper level energy is still over the Pacific and the better models for spring thunderstorms only work out to 2-3 days ahead of time.

Meanwhile, enjoy the beautiful spring weather. Foreca graphic looks reasonable for Slidell,with a few modifications, plus add a few degrees for Southshore low temperatures.

Here’s just a few details to keep in mind:

1) Humidity increases late Wednesday as do morning lows.

2) Don’t see any showers on Thursday, only a few clouds.

3) Friday will have morning clouds and maybe some light mist soaked with pine pollen (Yuk). Skies should turn partly cloudy and it will be warm enough for a stray light shower in the afternoon..

4) Main event comes anytime from noon to 6 PM Saturday with a batch or two of fast-moving showers and thunderstorms. Morning looks dry and it won’t be raining all the time in the afternoon. Model rainfall totals lower than they were a few days ago - maybe a half-inch. Again, we’ll look at it on Thursday to assess the severe weather threat, but right now my guess is that any bad stuff is 40 or more miles inland.

5) Beautiful spring weather marches right back in from Sunday through Wednesday.

We are done with frosts and freezes. Time to plant moat annuals except tropicals in the I-10/12 corridor, maybe hold off a week further north to let the soil warm up and dry out. I don't subscribe to the wait until April theory before planting a garden because of a stray chance of a frost -- you won't get many tomatoes that way.

Too early to fertilize grass, wait until the first week of April (nothing to do with the weather)

Foreca graphic for Pensacola Beach shows a much cooler and windier affair. Unless you’re getting ready for a trip to the Oregon Coast, with barely 70 degree temps. and winds over 20, you’ll freeze and get blasted by sand. Thunderstorms won’t arrive until Saturday night. Only venture there if you are getting your condo ready for the crowd this summer. Inland locations should be five degrees warmer.