Sunny Skies Return for the Weekend

Like tourists from Texas who lingered longer than expected (maybe they liked the food?), a thunderstorm complex parked itself in the Baton Rouge-Lafayette area this morning throwing up mid-level clouds that persisted all day. Showers redeveloped later in that area and near Hammond, but the movement has been northward, which is why most of St. Tammany and Coastal MS has only see a few drops.

I’m expecting a much more muted version of that theme tomorrow, with more sun, and showers confined to those areas. High pressure will build in from Florida for Saturday, leading to mostly sunny skies and ending the shower threat for the next five days. Expect humid, almost hot, pre-summer weather more typical of mid-May.

Here’s my key points:

1) Afternoon showers more likely tomorrow west and north of a line from Morgan City to Laplace, Hammond, Folsom, and Bogalusa. A stray shower may be possible in places just east of there - say Western St. Tammany, Amounts should be light.

2) A mix of clouds and sun tomorrow then mostly sunny Saturday through Tuesday. With highs in 85-87 range and early summer humidity, it will be a bit toasty for Jazz Fest.

3) Partly sunny next Wednesday through Friday. Next chance of showers will be next Thursday afternoon and evening, though it will be slim one.

4) Better chance of showers next Friday afternoon as a cold front pushes through. Even still, models not cranking out much rain because upper level support vanishes. Right side of the graph shows only a few tenths of an inch. Most of us will be watering our lawns.

5) Both high and low temperatures look low by a few degrees on the Foreca graph. Have no idea why - but I bumped up the temperatures in the text.

With cold front expected to push through next Friday evening May 2, the weekend of Saturday and Sunday May 3-4 is looking delightful. Highs near 80. Lows low-mid 60s Saturday and probably upper 50s Sunday AM on Northshore with lower humidity.

After that, expect another 3-4 days of dry weather with highs mid 80s. I’m still expecting most of May to have less precipitation than normal. Now is a great time to check your hoses and sprinklers - January’s gorgeous snowstorm and deep freeze may have take a toll on them.

There’s still no definitive word on whether the Spillway will open. Leaks to the press indicate its almost a certainty, but official forecast expects river to peak in the area from Baton Rouge to New Orleans this Saturday. I’m not seeing any chance of widespread heavy rain in the lower Mississippi valley that would throw a wrench into that forecast.

The lieutenant governor of Mississippi has written a letter to the Corps urging them not to do it. Oyster fisheries in MS Sound are also effected as is fishing in Lake Pontchartrain. My guess is that if they do so, it will be a partial opening for a week or two.

Foreca graphic shows that our patient has flat-lined! Nice, but cool, early summer beach weather with highs upper 70s, water temperatures mid 70s, and light morning breezes. Afternoon sea breezes will kick in at about 10-12 knots, making for some choppy conditions so the best time for boating would be in the AM. Great for a tan, an ankle dip in the ocean (unless you want to wear a shortie), a swim in the pool, a tennis match, or a bike trip. You can see the front coming in late next Friday with showers, but it’s too early to say whether this will stall or move through the Mobile to Destin area.