Sunny & Warmer starting Tuesday

Welcome to a preview of winter. This dreary, upper 50 degree day with occasional drips of rain is a sneak preview of what we should see a lot of this winter. It sure looks like rain is about to break out any minute, and a quick look at the Hammond radar would give credence to that. Rain is falling in NW to SE streaks, lined up with the mid-level winds, but as the raindrops fall they evaporate an blow east in this dry, cool air near the ground. Bottom line: Many of us should see patches of light rain this evening and overnight, but it won’t amount to much - maybe a few hundredths if even that. The only exception could be the Mississippi Gulf Coast which may not see anything.

Tomorrow, the low pressure area which is presently near Laredo, Texas will slip southeast into the Gulf as shown in this NWS forecast map. Precipitation should be well offshore and skies starting to clear. 20-25 mph winds presently over and near the Lake will decrease tonight. After that, there’s not much to talk about as we’ll be in for mostly sunny weather and a warming trend starting on Tuesday..

The Foreca graphic shows the warming trend and the dry weather. It’s rare when I show you one of these graphics without any rain! Though most of the days will be sunny, note the cloud cover on Thursday. .

A deepening low pressure area off the Southeast coast next weekend should bring down some cooler air to our east that will filter back towards our area. This should drop the highs down into the low 70s early next week. Another system behind it is forecast to be somewhere in the Gulf late next Tuesday to Wednesday Nov. 24-25. This could bring us showery weather that will probably get out of here before Thanksgiving. At least, that’s what most of the models indicate. Others, unfortunately, hold the showers off until Thanksgiving.

Assuming the consensus is correct. Thanksgiving should feature clearing skies with lows in the upper 40s and highs upper 60s — but confidence is low at this point.

Models do agree on a significant cold snap starting the Saturday or Sunday after Thanksgiving (lows 30s, highs 60s). Some models give us showers and storms before the cold air blows in next Saturday.

Early word on December is for a colder than normal month with an active storm track in the Gulf and more rain than we have been seeing. Don’t assume that this could mean snow. Typically, the El Nino winters feature lots of 40-50 degree rain storms with overnight lows near or slightly below freezing. Strong upper level westerlies prevent the really cold air from making it this far south. Ironically, most of the time I’ve seen snow here it’s been 65 degrees the day before.

Foreca graphic for Louis Armstrong. If you look at this real closely (you might need a magnifying glass), you’ll see a little trace of rain overnight. The only other thing of note is the chance of fog next Sunday — that’s impossible to forecast this far out but it bears watching as humidity gradually increases