Tale of Two Waves

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Our slightly less humid spell will barely last two days. Today’s easterly wave gave morning storms along the beaches of Harrison and Hancock Counties, the Lakefront areas of St. Tammany, and the Southshore. But if you were just a bit inland, it was hit-and-miss. Showers from that wave and another wave cutting across Cuba are shown in the annotated satellite image below.

Tomorrow and most of Thursday, we will be in between waves, leading to hot and dry weather. In some places, it could be the hottest of the season with widespread mid 90s. The next wave will lead to an increase in showers and storms on late Friday and Saturday. However, models are showing that showers and storms will develop over Georgia on Thursday. If they are strong enough, they could push southwest into our area Thursday evening.

Oh, there is Tropical Storm Andrea, a fish storm in the dead center of the Atlantic, as far north as Washington DC. It briefly developed enough thunderstorms that it merited tropical classification, but is now just a low level cloud swirl. I expect to see a few more of these meaningless fish storms this year since the water is quite warm that far north.

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The Foreca graphic shows the dry period tomorrow and Thursday morning, however underdoes the temperatures. Mid 90s for highs and mid 70s for lows for the next few days.

I will keep an eye on the radar on Thursday and let you know via my Wound Up on Weather Facebook page whether I expect those Georgia storms to make it past Mobile. Storms that approach this way to end a hot spell can produce spectacular lightning.

Rain chances increase for late Friday through Saturday (NWS says 70% and I agree), so highs stay at about 90. European model indicates lower shower chances on Sunday, increasing again on Monday. Beyond that the crystal ball gets hazy.

This time of year, there’s not a lot that can be said. European model indicates showers and storms more likely through next Wednesday, then less likely for July 4 and that weekend. There’s some basis for this in the upper air forecasts, but still far from certain at this point.

My tropical and long-range guru is leaning towards dropping his hurricane total by 2 or 3 storms, but wants to look at one more thing on July 1.

Foreca graphic for Pensacola Beach shows a really nice two days at the beach, though a bit toasty. Then, the chances of showers and storms increase through Tuesday. Again, shower chances at the beach reach their peak in the early and mid morning hours. Storms tend to move or reform inland during the afternoon.