That 3 AM Cold Front

Our 3 AM front, marked by a brief shower, will arrive like a slap to the face bringing our Christmas heat wave to an end and ushering in a few days of winter chill. This cold spell will last a day longer than the ones we’ve seen this winter, but even on the coldest night the lows shouldn’t drop below the 25-27 degree range in rural areas.

Temperatures will warm beginning Thursday (New Year’s Day) in the afternoon with highs climbing back up to the mid 60s. Then, there’ a chance of a few showers late Friday through early Saturday morning before a weak cold front drops temperatures a few degrees.

The real intrigue lies in the very long-range as we approach the coldest month of the year. I’ll explain the concern, albeit premature, in my “Long Range Ramblings” section.

The Foreca graphic looks like an out of control roll-a-coaster with a precipitous drop in temperatures from 3-8 AM tomorrow morning. Temperatures will rise only a few degrees to the mid 50s as the winds howl making it feel 15 degrees colder than actual temperatures. So, bring a sweater and/or jacket tomorrow. The early morning showers will be brief, might contain a flash or two or lightning, and drop a tenth of an inch or less.

Tuesday’s mornings lows will be just 1-3 degrees below freezing as the winds will keep the atmosphere mixed and frost should be minimal. However, that 30 could feel like 23 with a light breeze, so bundle up. Southshore lows 36-39.

Tuesday afternoon highs will struggle to reach 50. As winds die out, temperatures will drop for Wed. AM into the frosty 25-28 range in most Northshore suburban areas, maybe 28-30 in more heavily developed areas of the Northshore, low-mid 30s South. Wednesday afternoon will be warmer with mid-upper 50s.

Thursday morning will feature lows in the mid 30s in most rural and suburban Northshore areas — still cold enough for frost. However, more developed Northshore areas and the Southshore will probably be just a bit too warm in the upper 30s to low 40s.

Friday afternoon into early Saturday AM features our next chance for showers.

Just beyond the end of the graphic, expect highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s for Tuesday Jan. 6-Thurs. Jan. 8 with mostly fair weather.

My long-range guru, Joe Bastardi, is becoming increasingly concerned about a major Arctic outbreak entering the Central and Eastern U.S. during the third week of January, the coldest week of the year. Joe is a master of analogue forecasting looking for patterns in global sea surface temperatures, recent air temperature anomalies, plus tropical and Arctic upper air winds. Many of the convincing patterns he is seeing point to well below zero temps in the Great Lakes states. How much of that cold will reach the Deep South remains an open question, and I will keep you appraised.