The Shower Forecasting Game

Ask any female meteorologist: Going to a bridal or baby shower and playing those weird games is a lot more fun than trying to forecast when and where summer showers will happen. But, since I don’t have any choice…

This afternoon’s radar out of Eglin AFB shows a lot of Florida Panhandle storms headed our way. Odds are that some of them will eek into the Gulfport-Biloxi area shortly after sunset, but will hug the coast and may die by the time they reach Louisiana around midnight. Blame if on the wrong time of day when the ground cools, But even if they die, the atmospheric waves that created them still exists and will travel west kicking off more showers and storms tomorrow.

But the question is where. Some models fire off the storms in Eastern New Orleans and the Slidell area as soon as Boudreaux and Thibodaux hit the marsh (translation: first light of dawn). Other models wait a few hours, fire off the storms over Metairie and Western St. Tammany totally bypassing Slidell & Eastern New Orleans. Again, it’s not one model or one talking head that’s better than another. Rather, it’s that we’d have to sample the atmosphere every 25 miles to improve our forecasts in these situations and that’s not happening.

Shower chances go down a bit on Thursday and are lower still for most of us on Friday. I discuss some regional differences in my next section. Over the weekend, 20% shower chances seems about right before going up again for Monday.

The Foreca graphic spreads the shower chances out because of uncertainty. SO don’t look at this and think that five of the next seven days will be a washout. Starting with tomorrow, Wednesday…Many of us will see showers and storms, especially mid-day from Metairie to Mandeville-Covington and NE to Picayune (as well as areas north and west of that arc). Slidell is “iffy” and if it happens, it will be either in the early AM hours or late in the afternoon. Chances from Bay St. Louis to Biloxi look low. Note that the highs are still expected to be in the low 90s - so there will be some sunny periods.

Thursday’s shower and storm chances will be around 30%, typical summer afternoon except in the Bay St. Louis to Biloxi area where chances look slim. Friday looks to be shower free for many of us except there’s still a 20% chance on the Southshore and a few afternoon light showers may pop up on the Seabreeze front from Covington to Pearl Rive and the Kiln.

Scattered afternoon showers (20%) will be the rule Saturday and Sunday before increasing from Monday - Wednesday. Highs will still be in the 90s and the lows in the upper 70s.

Something no one talks about is how the summer lows are 4-5 degrees warmer than 50 years ago. Despite all the hoopla in the press about the French frying and the heat at World Cup games, high temperatures have not budged much in the last 50-100 years. Reason: It’s the humidity that has increased because of warmer oceans and the atmosphere can only cool to the dew point. Why has the ocean warmed? I think it’s geothermal activity or underwater volcanoes at plate boundaries. After all if you want to boil water, you turn on the gas burner, not reach for a heat lamp. End of soap box.

My crystal ball gets really fuzzy here. The period from June 10-18 seem wet and the long-range models insist on a drier late July. But remember, it is July. It rains here, even in below normal years.

No change in thinking on the hurricane season. July is normally a dud and this year looks to be a dead dud. The chance for something off the Carolinas has died.

Foreca graphic for Pensacola Beach shows the showers and storms this afternoon and tonight. After that, there could be a stray shower on Wednesday or Thursday, but the rest of the weekend looks fantastic — which is good news because I plan to be there. Scat erred shower activity will pick up for next week. Highs low 90s lowering to the upper 80s next week.