Tricky Local Forecast this Weekend

First, the good news: Tropical development in the Atlantic is unlikely for the next two weeks. I’ll explain why this has become clearer in the “Long Range Ramblings” section.

Closer to home, the beautiful tropical almost cloudless sky of today is likely to persist for most us tomorrow. However, a cold front approaching the I-20 corridor tomorrow is likely to create a batch of showers and storms that will head in our direction for Saturday afternoon. The tricky forecast will be for Sunday and Monday.

Will the front make it to and through our area? At this time of year…It’s more like a wind shift line that will produce storms rather than a feature that will bring us any cooler air. If it makes it through (unlikely), we’ll see clearing skies and nice weather on Sunday. More likely, the western and northern portions of the Northshore & Coastal MIssissippi will see some clearing, but not the rest of us. Details follow.

The Foreca graphic probably overdoes the days with rainfall. There were very few showers today from Baton Rouge east to Pensacola, out into the Gulf and inland 100 miles, so I think tomorrow will be similar: Hot with only a 20%-30% chance of an afternoon storm. If I had to pick a location, it would be on the LA-MS line north of Bogalusa and near Poplarville where showers drifting south from the front might get to them just before the sun sets. Another location might be just north of the I-10 in Long Beach where the sea breeze hits all the traffic trying to squeeze into Buc-ee’s. Amounts will be light.

Saturday will definitely see an uptick in shower and storm chances and rainfall amounts in the afternoon as the front just south of Jackson, MS will be sending them our way. Even still, highs will reach the 90s before the storms arrive.

On Sunday, the front devoid of much temperature impact will be approaching our area. I think this will be enough to limit shower chances in northern and western parts such as Hammond, Folsom, Washington Parish, and Northern Pearl River County. However, places like Slidell, Gulfport-Biloxi, and the Southshore could still get showers and storms. This will be very close, and I’ll try to post on my “Wound Up on Weather” page my thinking sometime on Saturday,

Note the slightly more reasonable temperatures on Sunday-Tuesday with rain chances still there. The same areas that could go rain free on Sunday may stay that way on Monday.

Despite the favorable upper air conditions, there’s just too much wind shear near the Bahamas and Florida for the westward moving wave to develop. Even still, I expect that wave to cross Florida on about August 10 spreading a few insignificant showers. Look at it as an over-advertised tasty one bight Hors d’Oeuvre before the season to come.

Another reason why the hurricane season is dead is the Eastern Atlantic which is still loaded with sinking, dry, dusty air above the cumulus clouds zipping by. Though conditions here should moderate, I still think we’ll see few storms in the Main Development Region this year.

Instead, what forms should form in the area between the Carolinas, Florida, Puerto Rico, and Bermuda or the Eastern Gulf. Next chance for development might be August 14-23. After that, upper air conditions will turn unfavorable until mid-September.

Showers and storms predominate with cloudy skies for Saturday through Wednesday making for an ugly stretch of weather with temperatures in the mid 80s. Maybe you should just stop at Buc-ee’s and turn back home?